LyondellBasell Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LYB Stock | USD 50.47 0.04 0.08% |
LyondellBasell Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast LyondellBasell Industries stock prices and determine the direction of LyondellBasell Industries NV's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of LyondellBasell Industries' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength index (RSI) of LyondellBasell Industries' share price is at 58. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling LyondellBasell Industries, making its price go up or down. Momentum 58
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.5693 | EPS Estimate Current Year 2.2567 | EPS Estimate Next Year 3.3318 | Wall Street Target Price 49.5294 |
Using LyondellBasell Industries hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of LyondellBasell Industries NV from the perspective of LyondellBasell Industries response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards LyondellBasell Industries using LyondellBasell Industries' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards LyondellBasell using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of LyondellBasell Industries' stock price.
LyondellBasell Industries Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in LyondellBasell Industries' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards LyondellBasell. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of LyondellBasell Industries stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 52.6142 | Short Percent 0.0688 | Short Ratio 4.01 | Shares Short Prior Month 20.6 M | 50 Day MA 45.953 |
LyondellBasell Relative Strength Index
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of LyondellBasell Industries NV on the next trading day is expected to be 47.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.42.LyondellBasell Industries Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to LyondellBasell Industries' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in LyondellBasell. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding LyondellBasell can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around LyondellBasell Industries NV. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of LyondellBasell Industries' market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about LyondellBasell Industries.
LyondellBasell Industries Implied Volatility | 0.65 |
LyondellBasell Industries' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of LyondellBasell Industries NV stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if LyondellBasell Industries' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that LyondellBasell Industries stock will not fluctuate a lot when LyondellBasell Industries' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of LyondellBasell Industries NV on the next trading day is expected to be 47.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91 and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.42. LyondellBasell Industries after-hype prediction price | USD 50.27 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current LyondellBasell contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that LyondellBasell Industries NV will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0406% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With LyondellBasell Industries trading at USD 50.47, that is roughly USD 0.0205 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating LyondellBasell Industries' daily price movement you should consider acquiring LyondellBasell Industries NV options at the current volatility level of 0.65%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 LyondellBasell Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast LyondellBasell Industries' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in LyondellBasell Industries' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for LyondellBasell Industries stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current LyondellBasell Industries' open interest, investors have to compare it to LyondellBasell Industries' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of LyondellBasell Industries is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in LyondellBasell. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
LyondellBasell Industries Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine LyondellBasell price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for LyondellBasell using various technical indicators. When you analyze LyondellBasell charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
LyondellBasell Industries Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the LyondellBasell Industries' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2008-12-31 | Previous Quarter 1.7 B | Current Value 1.8 B | Quarterly Volatility 1.2 B |
LyondellBasell Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of LyondellBasell Industries NV on the next trading day is expected to be 47.27 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.91, mean absolute percentage error of 1.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 55.42.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict LyondellBasell Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that LyondellBasell Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
LyondellBasell Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest LyondellBasell Industries | LyondellBasell Industries Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
LyondellBasell Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting LyondellBasell Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. LyondellBasell Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 44.60 and 49.94, respectively. We have considered LyondellBasell Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of LyondellBasell Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent LyondellBasell Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4866 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9086 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.02 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 55.4233 |
Predictive Modules for LyondellBasell Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as LyondellBasell Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of LyondellBasell Industries' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
LyondellBasell Industries After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of LyondellBasell Industries at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in LyondellBasell Industries or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of LyondellBasell Industries, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
LyondellBasell Industries Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting LyondellBasell Industries' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on LyondellBasell Industries' historical news coverage. LyondellBasell Industries' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 47.60 and 52.94, respectively. We have considered LyondellBasell Industries' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
LyondellBasell Industries is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of LyondellBasell Industries is based on 3 months time horizon.
LyondellBasell Industries Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as LyondellBasell Industries is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading LyondellBasell Industries backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with LyondellBasell Industries, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 2.67 | 0.20 | 0.30 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
50.47 | 50.27 | 0.40 |
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LyondellBasell Industries Hype Timeline
On the 29th of January LyondellBasell Industries is traded for 50.47. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.2, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.3. LyondellBasell is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 50.27. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price depreciation on the next news is expected to be -0.4%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.22%. The volatility of related hype on LyondellBasell Industries is about 197.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 50.77. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.53. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. LyondellBasell Industries has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.02. The entity recorded a loss per share of 4.03. The firm last dividend was issued on the 1st of December 2025. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LyondellBasell Industries to cross-verify your projections.LyondellBasell Industries Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to LyondellBasell Industries' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict LyondellBasell Industries' future price movements. Getting to know how LyondellBasell Industries' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how LyondellBasell Industries may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| DOW | Dow Inc | 0.22 | 8 per month | 2.00 | 0.07 | 6.01 | (3.59) | 10.03 | |
| DD | Dupont De Nemours | 0.13 | 13 per month | 0.79 | 0.20 | 3.40 | (2.06) | 11.55 | |
| IFF | International Flavors Fragrances | (0.33) | 10 per month | 1.33 | 0.05 | 3.09 | (2.30) | 7.75 | |
| SQM | Sociedad Quimica y | 1.21 | 11 per month | 1.71 | 0.33 | 6.23 | (3.79) | 13.35 | |
| RPM | RPM International | (0.41) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.54 | (2.53) | 6.87 | |
| ALB | Albemarle Corp | 11.14 | 8 per month | 3.04 | 0.26 | 6.58 | (6.18) | 17.41 | |
| CX | Cemex SAB de | 0.12 | 12 per month | 0.97 | 0.23 | 3.44 | (1.75) | 13.23 | |
| WLK | Westlake Chemical | (2.52) | 3 per month | 2.55 | 0.01 | 4.69 | (4.13) | 11.29 | |
| RS | Reliance Steel Aluminum | 2.84 | 11 per month | 0.69 | 0.16 | 2.67 | (1.55) | 5.44 | |
| CF | CF Industries Holdings | 1.13 | 10 per month | 1.82 | 0.03 | 3.53 | (2.93) | 7.82 |
Other Forecasting Options for LyondellBasell Industries
For every potential investor in LyondellBasell, whether a beginner or expert, LyondellBasell Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. LyondellBasell Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in LyondellBasell. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying LyondellBasell Industries' price trends.LyondellBasell Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with LyondellBasell Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of LyondellBasell Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing LyondellBasell Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
LyondellBasell Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how LyondellBasell Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading LyondellBasell Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying LyondellBasell Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify LyondellBasell Industries NV entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
LyondellBasell Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of LyondellBasell Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in LyondellBasell Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lyondellbasell stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.05 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.24 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.69 | |||
| Variance | 7.24 | |||
| Downside Variance | 5.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 5.01 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.23) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for LyondellBasell Industries
The number of cover stories for LyondellBasell Industries depends on current market conditions and LyondellBasell Industries' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that LyondellBasell Industries is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about LyondellBasell Industries' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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LyondellBasell Industries Short Properties
LyondellBasell Industries' future price predictability will typically decrease when LyondellBasell Industries' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of LyondellBasell Industries NV often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential LyondellBasell Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. LyondellBasell Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 326 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.4 B |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of LyondellBasell Industries to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Commodity Channel module to use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum.
Is Commodity Chemicals space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of LyondellBasell Industries. Expected growth trajectory for LyondellBasell significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive LyondellBasell Industries assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.88) | Dividend Share 5.42 | Earnings Share (4.03) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.10) |
The market value of LyondellBasell Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of LyondellBasell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of LyondellBasell Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is LyondellBasell Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because LyondellBasell Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect LyondellBasell Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Understanding that LyondellBasell Industries' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether LyondellBasell Industries represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Meanwhile, LyondellBasell Industries' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.