Lyra Therapeutics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| LYRA Stock | USD 2.05 0.35 20.59% |
Lyra Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Lyra Therapeutics stock prices and determine the direction of Lyra Therapeutics's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Lyra Therapeutics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time, the value of RSI of Lyra Therapeutics' share price is approaching 35. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Lyra Therapeutics, making its price go up or down. Momentum 35
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Lyra Therapeutics hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Lyra Therapeutics from the perspective of Lyra Therapeutics response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lyra Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 2.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27 and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.75. Lyra Therapeutics after-hype prediction price | USD 2.05 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lyra Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lyra Stock refer to our How to Trade Lyra Stock guide.Lyra Therapeutics Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Lyra price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Lyra using various technical indicators. When you analyze Lyra charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Lyra Therapeutics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Lyra Therapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 2.07 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.27, mean absolute percentage error of 0.13, and the sum of the absolute errors of 16.75.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Lyra Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Lyra Therapeutics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Lyra Therapeutics Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Lyra Therapeutics | Lyra Therapeutics Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Lyra Therapeutics Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Lyra Therapeutics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Lyra Therapeutics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 10.94, respectively. We have considered Lyra Therapeutics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Lyra Therapeutics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Lyra Therapeutics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.0458 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2745 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0857 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 16.7472 |
Predictive Modules for Lyra Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Lyra Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Lyra Therapeutics After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Lyra Therapeutics at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Lyra Therapeutics or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Lyra Therapeutics, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Lyra Therapeutics Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Lyra Therapeutics' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Lyra Therapeutics' historical news coverage. Lyra Therapeutics' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 10.92, respectively. We have considered Lyra Therapeutics' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Lyra Therapeutics is extremely dangerous at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Lyra Therapeutics is based on 3 months time horizon.
Lyra Therapeutics Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Lyra Therapeutics is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Lyra Therapeutics backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Lyra Therapeutics, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.16 | 8.87 | 0.10 | 0.07 | 2 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In a few days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.05 | 2.05 | 0.00 |
|
Lyra Therapeutics Hype Timeline
Lyra Therapeutics is now traded for 2.05. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.1, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.07. Lyra is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.16%. %. The volatility of related hype on Lyra Therapeutics is about 13859.37%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.98. About 22.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 1.61. Lyra Therapeutics recorded a loss per share of 22.9. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:50 split on the 28th of May 2025. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in a few days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lyra Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lyra Stock refer to our How to Trade Lyra Stock guide.Lyra Therapeutics Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Lyra Therapeutics' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Lyra Therapeutics' future price movements. Getting to know how Lyra Therapeutics' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Lyra Therapeutics may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RNAZ | Transcode Therapeutics | 0.09 | 2 per month | 4.59 | 0.02 | 8.35 | (7.21) | 30.45 | |
| INAB | In8bio Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.24 | 0.02 | 14.29 | (9.18) | 37.96 | |
| GLTO | Galecto | 0.00 | 0 per month | 7.10 | 0.13 | 17.97 | (14.66) | 273.14 | |
| BOLT | Bolt Biotherapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.59 | 0.06 | 8.22 | (6.43) | 18.19 | |
| CLRB | Cellectar Biosciences | 0.00 | 0 per month | 5.83 | 0.02 | 7.66 | (7.25) | 30.55 | |
| HCWB | HCW Biologics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 13.02 | (11.97) | 41.72 | |
| APVO | Aptevo Therapeutics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.25) | 7.81 | (9.42) | 45.42 | |
| AEON | AEON Biopharma | (0.45) | 4 per month | 5.46 | 0.11 | 10.34 | (8.54) | 33.74 | |
| CDIO | Cardio Diagnostics Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 8.36 | (12.50) | 38.04 | |
| CING | Cingulate | (0.28) | 7 per month | 4.34 | 0.17 | 7.82 | (6.75) | 20.19 |
Other Forecasting Options for Lyra Therapeutics
For every potential investor in Lyra, whether a beginner or expert, Lyra Therapeutics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Lyra Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Lyra. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Lyra Therapeutics' price trends.Lyra Therapeutics Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Lyra Therapeutics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Lyra Therapeutics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Lyra Therapeutics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Lyra Therapeutics Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Lyra Therapeutics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Lyra Therapeutics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Lyra Therapeutics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Lyra Therapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Lyra Therapeutics Risk Indicators
The analysis of Lyra Therapeutics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Lyra Therapeutics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting lyra stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 5.48 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 8.87 | |||
| Variance | 78.63 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Lyra Therapeutics
The number of cover stories for Lyra Therapeutics depends on current market conditions and Lyra Therapeutics' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Lyra Therapeutics is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Lyra Therapeutics' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Contributor Headline
Latest Perspective From Macroaxis
Lyra Therapeutics Short Properties
Lyra Therapeutics' future price predictability will typically decrease when Lyra Therapeutics' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Lyra Therapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Lyra Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Lyra Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 65.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 40.6 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Lyra Therapeutics to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Lyra Stock refer to our How to Trade Lyra Stock guide.You can also try the Pair Correlation module to compare performance and examine fundamental relationship between any two equity instruments.
Is Stock space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Lyra Therapeutics. Expected growth trajectory for Lyra significantly influences the price investors are willing to assign. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. Comprehensive Lyra Therapeutics assessment requires weighing all these inputs, though not all factors influence outcomes equally.
Understanding Lyra Therapeutics requires distinguishing between market price and book value, where the latter reflects Lyra's accounting equity. The concept of intrinsic value—what Lyra Therapeutics' is actually worth based on fundamentals—guides informed investors toward better entry and exit points. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Market sentiment, economic cycles, and investor behavior can push Lyra Therapeutics' price substantially above or below its fundamental value.
Understanding that Lyra Therapeutics' value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Lyra Therapeutics represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. In contrast, Lyra Therapeutics' trading price reflects the actual exchange value where willing buyers and sellers reach mutual agreement.