Metso Outotec Stock Forward View - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| M6Q Stock | EUR 16.50 0.08 0.49% |
Metso Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Metso Outotec's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 20th of February 2026, The relative strength index (RSI) of Metso Outotec's share price is at 56. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Metso Outotec, making its price go up or down. Momentum 56
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.37) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.134 |
Using Metso Outotec hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Metso Outotec Oyj from the perspective of Metso Outotec response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metso Outotec Oyj on the next trading day is expected to be 16.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.74. Metso Outotec after-hype prediction price | EUR 16.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Metso |
Metso Outotec Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Metso price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Metso using various technical indicators. When you analyze Metso charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Metso Outotec Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 21st of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metso Outotec Oyj on the next trading day is expected to be 16.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.74.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Metso Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Metso Outotec's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Metso Outotec Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Metso Outotec | Metso Outotec Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Metso Outotec Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Metso Outotec's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Metso Outotec's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 15.00 and 18.00, respectively. We have considered Metso Outotec's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metso Outotec stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metso Outotec stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.4523 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.064 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1789 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0114 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 10.7363 |
Predictive Modules for Metso Outotec
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metso Outotec Oyj. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Metso Outotec After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Metso Outotec at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Metso Outotec or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Metso Outotec, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Metso Outotec Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Metso Outotec's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Metso Outotec's historical news coverage. Metso Outotec's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 15.01 and 18.01, respectively. We have considered Metso Outotec's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Metso Outotec is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Metso Outotec Oyj is based on 3 months time horizon.
Metso Outotec Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Metso Outotec is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Metso Outotec backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Metso Outotec, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.33 | 1.50 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 1 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.50 | 16.51 | 0.06 |
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Metso Outotec Hype Timeline
Metso Outotec Oyj is now traded for 16.50on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. Metso is estimated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 16.51 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is forecasted to be 0.06%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.33%. The volatility of related hype on Metso Outotec is about 37037.04%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.50. The company reported the revenue of 5.24 B. Net Income was 423 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.68 B. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Metso Outotec to cross-verify your projections.Metso Outotec Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Metso Outotec's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Metso Outotec's future price movements. Getting to know how Metso Outotec's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Metso Outotec may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HX1A | HEXINDO ADIPERKASA | 0.02 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.29 | |
| 3IB | PT Indo Tambangraya | (0.12) | 2 per month | 2.54 | (0.01) | 7.27 | (6.78) | 18.02 | |
| OAIA | RAMAYANA LESTARI | 0.00 | 3 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| T9Q | TOTAL BANGUN PERSAD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 3.85 | 0.06 | 8.99 | (6.25) | 22.00 | |
| IUA | ASTRA GRAPHIA | (0.0005) | 2 per month | 3.64 | 0.10 | 19.42 | (4.71) | 42.26 | |
| T9Q | TOTAL BANGUN PERSAD | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 8.89 | |
| 2P0N | PETROSEA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BNB | BAYAN RESOURCES | 0.06 | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 1.19 | (2.30) | 20.54 | |
| BNB | BAYAN RESOURCES | (0.02) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.58) | 0.00 | (2.27) | 2.50 | |
| 3IB | INDO TAMBANGRAYA MG | 0.02 | 3 per month | 0.49 | (0.06) | 0.88 | (0.85) | 6.01 |
Other Forecasting Options for Metso Outotec
For every potential investor in Metso, whether a beginner or expert, Metso Outotec's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Metso Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Metso. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Metso Outotec's price trends.Metso Outotec Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Metso Outotec stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Metso Outotec could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Metso Outotec by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Metso Outotec Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Metso Outotec stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Metso Outotec shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Metso Outotec stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Metso Outotec Oyj entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Metso Outotec Risk Indicators
The analysis of Metso Outotec's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Metso Outotec's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting metso stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.2 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.26 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.56 | |||
| Variance | 2.43 | |||
| Downside Variance | 2.35 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.38) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Metso Outotec
The number of cover stories for Metso Outotec depends on current market conditions and Metso Outotec's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Metso Outotec is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Metso Outotec's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Other Information on Investing in Metso Stock
Metso Outotec financial ratios help investors to determine whether Metso Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Metso with respect to the benefits of owning Metso Outotec security.