Martin Currie Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

MACEX Fund  USD 17.77  0.26  1.48%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Martin Currie Emerging on the next trading day is expected to be 17.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.09. Martin Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Martin Currie's mutual fund price is slightly above 63. This indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Martin, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 63

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Martin Currie's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Martin Currie Emerging, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Martin Currie hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Martin Currie Emerging from the perspective of Martin Currie response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Martin Currie Emerging on the next trading day is expected to be 17.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.09.

Martin Currie after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 17.77  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Martin Currie to cross-verify your projections.

Martin Currie Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Martin price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Martin using various technical indicators. When you analyze Martin charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A four-period moving average forecast model for Martin Currie Emerging is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Martin Currie 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 23rd of January

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Martin Currie Emerging on the next trading day is expected to be 17.70 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.09.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Martin Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Martin Currie's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Martin Currie Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Martin CurrieMartin Currie Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Martin Currie Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Martin Currie's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Martin Currie's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.82 and 18.59, respectively. We have considered Martin Currie's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.77
17.70
Expected Value
18.59
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Martin Currie mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Martin Currie mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria107.7188
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0429
MADMean absolute deviation0.177
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0106
SAESum of the absolute errors10.0875
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Martin Currie. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Martin Currie Emerging and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Martin Currie

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Martin Currie Emerging. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Martin Currie's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.8917.7718.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
16.6617.5418.42
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
16.0017.1818.35
Details

Martin Currie After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Martin Currie at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Martin Currie or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Martin Currie, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Martin Currie Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Martin Currie's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Martin Currie's historical news coverage. Martin Currie's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.89 and 18.65, respectively. We have considered Martin Currie's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
17.77
17.77
After-hype Price
18.65
Upside
Martin Currie is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Martin Currie Emerging is based on 3 months time horizon.

Martin Currie Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Martin Currie is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Martin Currie backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Martin Currie, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.13 
0.88
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
17.77
17.77
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Martin Currie Hype Timeline

Martin Currie Emerging is now traded for 17.77. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Martin is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.13%. %. The volatility of related hype on Martin Currie is about 3422.22%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 17.77. The company last dividend was issued on the 18th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Martin Currie to cross-verify your projections.

Martin Currie Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Martin Currie's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Martin Currie's future price movements. Getting to know how Martin Currie's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Martin Currie may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Martin Currie

For every potential investor in Martin, whether a beginner or expert, Martin Currie's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Martin Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Martin. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Martin Currie's price trends.

Martin Currie Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Martin Currie mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Martin Currie could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Martin Currie by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Martin Currie Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Martin Currie mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Martin Currie shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Martin Currie mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Martin Currie Emerging entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Martin Currie Risk Indicators

The analysis of Martin Currie's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Martin Currie's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting martin mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Martin Currie

The number of cover stories for Martin Currie depends on current market conditions and Martin Currie's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Martin Currie is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Martin Currie's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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Other Information on Investing in Martin Mutual Fund

Martin Currie financial ratios help investors to determine whether Martin Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Martin with respect to the benefits of owning Martin Currie security.
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