Magnera Corp Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MAGN Stock | 13.78 0.28 1.99% |
Magnera Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Although Magnera Corp's naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Magnera Corp's systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Magnera Corp fundamentals over time.
As of today, The relative strength index (RSI) of Magnera Corp's share price is at 52. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Magnera Corp, making its price go up or down. Momentum 52
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.08 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.0052 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.5412 | Wall Street Target Price 17 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.1347 |
Using Magnera Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Magnera Corp placeholder from the perspective of Magnera Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Magnera Corp using Magnera Corp's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Magnera using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Magnera Corp's stock price.
Magnera Corp Implied Volatility | 1.25 |
Magnera Corp's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Magnera Corp placeholder stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Magnera Corp's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Magnera Corp stock will not fluctuate a lot when Magnera Corp's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Magnera Corp placeholder on the next trading day is expected to be 13.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35 and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.44. Magnera Corp after-hype prediction price | USD 13.78 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magnera Corp to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Magnera contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Magnera Corp placeholder will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0781% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Magnera Corp trading at USD 13.78, that is roughly USD 0.0108 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Magnera Corp's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Magnera Corp placeholder options at the current volatility level of 1.25%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Magnera Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Magnera Corp's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Magnera Corp's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Magnera Corp stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Magnera Corp's open interest, investors have to compare it to Magnera Corp's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Magnera Corp is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Magnera. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Magnera Corp Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Magnera price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Magnera using various technical indicators. When you analyze Magnera charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Magnera Corp Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Magnera Corp placeholder on the next trading day is expected to be 13.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.35, mean absolute percentage error of 0.31, and the sum of the absolute errors of 21.44.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magnera Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magnera Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Magnera Corp Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Magnera Corp | Magnera Corp Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Magnera Corp Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Magnera Corp's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Magnera Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.44 and 19.12, respectively. We have considered Magnera Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magnera Corp stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magnera Corp stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 116.9337 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0764 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.3515 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0291 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 21.44 |
Predictive Modules for Magnera Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magnera Corp placeholder. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Magnera Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Magnera Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Magnera Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Magnera Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Magnera Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Magnera Corp's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Magnera Corp's historical news coverage. Magnera Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.42 and 19.14, respectively. We have considered Magnera Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Magnera Corp is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Magnera Corp placeholder is based on 3 months time horizon.
Magnera Corp Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Magnera Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Magnera Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Magnera Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.92 | 5.34 | 0.75 | 0.17 | 6 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 6 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
13.78 | 13.78 | 0.00 |
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Magnera Corp Hype Timeline
Magnera Corp placeholder is now traded for 13.78. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.75, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.17. Magnera is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.92%. %. The volatility of related hype on Magnera Corp is about 2934.07%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.95. About 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.47. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Magnera Corp placeholder recorded a loss per share of 4.47. The entity last dividend was issued on the 30th of June 2022. The firm had 1:13 split on the 4th of November 2024. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 6 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magnera Corp to cross-verify your projections.Magnera Corp Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Magnera Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Magnera Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Magnera Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Magnera Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| WNC | Wabash National | 0.81 | 18 per month | 2.19 | 0.04 | 5.40 | (3.78) | 16.28 | |
| CMDB | Costamare Bulkers Holdings | 0.07 | 9 per month | 1.63 | 0.10 | 2.58 | (3.29) | 15.86 | |
| NPWR | NET Power | (0.20) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 7.95 | (7.50) | 30.06 | |
| AIRJ | Montana Technologies | 0.80 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 13.28 | (7.52) | 31.81 | |
| FLYX | flyExclusive | (0.07) | 7 per month | 7.57 | 0.03 | 11.96 | (11.89) | 161.87 | |
| ACTG | Acacia Research | (0.08) | 22 per month | 2.36 | 0.04 | 3.54 | (3.39) | 15.00 | |
| BNC | CEA Industries | 0.02 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 9.58 | (9.22) | 35.96 | |
| PANL | Pangaea Logistic | (0.13) | 9 per month | 1.25 | 0.21 | 5.11 | (2.91) | 22.74 | |
| MG | Mistras Group | 0.31 | 10 per month | 1.55 | 0.16 | 4.20 | (2.81) | 27.65 | |
| PKOH | Park Ohio Holdings | 0.29 | 8 per month | 2.40 | 0.04 | 4.77 | (3.60) | 14.74 |
Other Forecasting Options for Magnera Corp
For every potential investor in Magnera, whether a beginner or expert, Magnera Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magnera Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magnera. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magnera Corp's price trends.Magnera Corp Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magnera Corp stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magnera Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magnera Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Magnera Corp Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Magnera Corp stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Magnera Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Magnera Corp stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Magnera Corp placeholder entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 9429.17 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.57) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 14.02 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 13.94 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.38) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.28) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 52.65 |
Magnera Corp Risk Indicators
The analysis of Magnera Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magnera Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting magnera stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.07 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.75 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.23 | |||
| Variance | 27.34 | |||
| Downside Variance | 11.3 | |||
| Semi Variance | 7.58 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (3.52) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Magnera Corp
The number of cover stories for Magnera Corp depends on current market conditions and Magnera Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Magnera Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Magnera Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Magnera Corp Short Properties
Magnera Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Magnera Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Magnera Corp placeholder often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Magnera Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Magnera Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35.5 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 305 M | |
| Shares Float | 23.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Magnera Corp to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Center module to all portfolio management and optimization tools to improve performance of your portfolios.
Is Paper & Forest Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Magnera Corp. If investors know Magnera will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Magnera Corp listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (4.47) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.514 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Magnera Corp placeholder is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Magnera that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Magnera Corp's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Magnera Corp's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Magnera Corp's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Magnera Corp's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Magnera Corp's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Magnera Corp is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Magnera Corp's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.