Manorama Industries Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MANORAMA | 1,184 6.85 0.58% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Manorama Industries Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1,250 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.25 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,418. Manorama Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Although Manorama Industries' naive historical forecasting may sometimes provide an important future outlook for the firm, we recommend always cross-verifying it against solid analysis of Manorama Industries' systematic risk associated with finding meaningful patterns of Manorama Industries fundamentals over time.
Manorama |
Manorama Industries Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 4th of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Manorama Industries Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 1,250 with a mean absolute deviation of 23.25, mean absolute percentage error of 895.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1,418.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manorama Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manorama Industries' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Manorama Industries Stock Forecast Pattern
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Manorama Industries Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Manorama Industries' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manorama Industries' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1,246 and 1,253, respectively. We have considered Manorama Industries' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manorama Industries stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manorama Industries stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 124.9073 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 23.2504 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0243 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1418.2723 |
Predictive Modules for Manorama Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manorama Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Manorama Industries
For every potential investor in Manorama, whether a beginner or expert, Manorama Industries' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manorama Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manorama. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manorama Industries' price trends.Manorama Industries Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manorama Industries stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manorama Industries could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manorama Industries by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Manorama Industries Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Manorama Industries' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Manorama Industries' current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
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| Volume Indicators |
Manorama Industries Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Manorama Industries stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Manorama Industries shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Manorama Industries stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Manorama Industries Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Manorama Industries Risk Indicators
The analysis of Manorama Industries' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manorama Industries' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting manorama stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.34 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.47 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.12 | |||
| Variance | 9.73 | |||
| Downside Variance | 9.22 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.08 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.70) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Manorama Stock
Manorama Industries financial ratios help investors to determine whether Manorama Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Manorama with respect to the benefits of owning Manorama Industries security.