Marubeni Corp Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

MARUY Stock  USD 330.45  13.90  4.39%   
Marubeni Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Marubeni Corp's pink sheet price is slightly above 69. This indicates that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Marubeni, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 69

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Marubeni Corp's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Marubeni Corp ADR, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Marubeni Corp hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Marubeni Corp ADR from the perspective of Marubeni Corp response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marubeni Corp ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 336.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.75 and the sum of the absolute errors of 411.78.

Marubeni Corp after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 316.56  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marubeni Corp to cross-verify your projections.

Marubeni Corp Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Marubeni price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Marubeni using various technical indicators. When you analyze Marubeni charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for Marubeni Corp is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Marubeni Corp ADR value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Marubeni Corp Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marubeni Corp ADR on the next trading day is expected to be 336.26 with a mean absolute deviation of 6.75, mean absolute percentage error of 67.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 411.78.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marubeni Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marubeni Corp's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marubeni Corp Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Marubeni Corp  Marubeni Corp Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Marubeni Corp Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Marubeni Corp's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Marubeni Corp's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 334.56 and 337.97, respectively. We have considered Marubeni Corp's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
330.45
334.56
Downside
336.26
Expected Value
337.97
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marubeni Corp pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marubeni Corp pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria122.3267
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation6.7505
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0246
SAESum of the absolute errors411.7805
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Marubeni Corp ADR. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Marubeni Corp. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Marubeni Corp

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marubeni Corp ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Marubeni Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
314.92316.56318.20
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
284.90353.57355.21
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
260.25298.46336.67
Details

Marubeni Corp After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Marubeni Corp at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Marubeni Corp or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Marubeni Corp, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Marubeni Corp Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Marubeni Corp's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Marubeni Corp's historical news coverage. Marubeni Corp's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 314.92 and 318.20, respectively. We have considered Marubeni Corp's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
330.45
314.92
Downside
316.56
After-hype Price
318.20
Upside
Marubeni Corp is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Marubeni Corp ADR is based on 3 months time horizon.

Marubeni Corp Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Marubeni Corp is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Marubeni Corp backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Marubeni Corp, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.52 
1.71
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
330.45
316.56
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Marubeni Corp Hype Timeline

Marubeni Corp ADR is now traded for 330.45. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Marubeni is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.52%. %. The volatility of related hype on Marubeni Corp is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 330.45. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.93. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Marubeni Corp ADR recorded earning per share (EPS) of 24.66. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of September 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Marubeni Corp to cross-verify your projections.

Marubeni Corp Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Marubeni Corp's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Marubeni Corp's future price movements. Getting to know how Marubeni Corp's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Marubeni Corp may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
SSUMFSumitomo 0.00 0 per month 2.47  0.14  5.48 (4.19) 16.81 
CTPCYCitic Ltd ADR 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0) 2.88 (0.13) 16.81 
SSUMYSumitomo Corp ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.05  0.23  3.29 (2.10) 6.35 
ANNSFAena SME SA 0.00 0 per month 1.47  0.03  3.00 (1.77) 6.60 
CTPCFCITIC Limited 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.0008) 0.00  0.00  28.12 
ASAZYAssa Abloy AB 0.00 0 per month 1.19  0.04  2.05 (2.01) 5.56 
SIELYShanghai Electric Group 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.06) 1.05 (5.49) 16.37 
SDVKYSandvik AB ADR 0.00 0 per month 1.01  0.23  3.18 (1.88) 6.24 
SHLAFSchindler Holding AG 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.35) 0.00  0.00  1.03 
CKHUFCK Hutchison Holdings 0.00 0 per month 3.18  0.08  6.25 (6.94) 18.34 

Other Forecasting Options for Marubeni Corp

For every potential investor in Marubeni, whether a beginner or expert, Marubeni Corp's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Marubeni Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Marubeni. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Marubeni Corp's price trends.

Marubeni Corp Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marubeni Corp pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marubeni Corp could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marubeni Corp by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marubeni Corp Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marubeni Corp pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marubeni Corp shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marubeni Corp pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Marubeni Corp ADR entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marubeni Corp Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marubeni Corp's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marubeni Corp's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marubeni pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Marubeni Corp

The number of cover stories for Marubeni Corp depends on current market conditions and Marubeni Corp's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Marubeni Corp is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Marubeni Corp's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Marubeni Corp Short Properties

Marubeni Corp's future price predictability will typically decrease when Marubeni Corp's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Marubeni Corp ADR often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Marubeni Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Marubeni Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding173.8 M
Cash And Short Term Investments1.4 T

Additional Tools for Marubeni Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Marubeni Corp's price analysis, check to measure Marubeni Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marubeni Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Marubeni Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marubeni Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marubeni Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marubeni Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.