Metal Bank Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MBK Stock | 0.03 0 3.85% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metal Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0009 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.06. Metal Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength momentum indicator of Metal Bank's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.73) |
Using Metal Bank hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Metal Bank from the perspective of Metal Bank response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metal Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0009 and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.06. Metal Bank after-hype prediction price | AUD 0.03 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Metal |
Metal Bank Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Metal price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Metal using various technical indicators. When you analyze Metal charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Metal Bank Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 25th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Metal Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 0.03 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.0009, mean absolute percentage error of 0.00000172, and the sum of the absolute errors of 0.06.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Metal Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Metal Bank's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Metal Bank Stock Forecast Pattern
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Metal Bank Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Metal Bank's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Metal Bank's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.0003 and 6.83, respectively. We have considered Metal Bank's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metal Bank stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metal Bank stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 104.8352 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -2.0E-4 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 9.0E-4 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0434 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 0.0561 |
Predictive Modules for Metal Bank
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metal Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Metal Bank After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Metal Bank at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Metal Bank or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Metal Bank, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Metal Bank Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Metal Bank's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Metal Bank's historical news coverage. Metal Bank's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.00 and 6.84, respectively. We have considered Metal Bank's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Metal Bank is out of control at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Metal Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
Metal Bank Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Metal Bank is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Metal Bank backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Metal Bank, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.84 | 6.81 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
0.03 | 0.03 | 20.00 |
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Metal Bank Hype Timeline
Metal Bank is now traded for 0.03on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.01. Metal is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 0.03 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price appreciation on the next news is anticipated to be 20.0%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.84%. The volatility of related hype on Metal Bank is about 45781.51%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 0.04. Metal Bank has accumulated 359.69 K in total debt. Debt can assist Metal Bank until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Metal Bank's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Metal Bank sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Metal to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Metal Bank's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity.Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Metal Bank to cross-verify your projections.Metal Bank Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Metal Bank's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Metal Bank's future price movements. Getting to know how Metal Bank's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Metal Bank may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| IAGPF | Insurance Australia Group | 0.09 | 4 per month | 0.39 | (0.11) | 0.62 | (0.57) | 2.85 | |
| RFG | Retail Food Group | 0.01 | 4 per month | 1.76 | 0.09 | 5.07 | (3.85) | 14.43 | |
| IFL | Insignia Financial | 0.01 | 4 per month | 0.26 | (0.06) | 0.66 | (0.66) | 1.76 | |
| FNX | Finexia Financial Group | 0.02 | 9 per month | 0.00 | 0.13 | 5.88 | 0.00 | 19.55 | |
| CKF | Collins Foods | (0.02) | 8 per month | 1.52 | (0.04) | 2.52 | (3.21) | 7.20 | |
| BOQPG | Bank of Queensland | 0.01 | 5 per month | 0.29 | (0.21) | 0.54 | (0.70) | 1.84 | |
| MBX | My Foodie BOX | 0.00 | 3 per month | 3.05 | 0.08 | 8.70 | (6.67) | 25.04 | |
| AHF | Australian Dairy Nutritionals | (0) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 5.88 | (7.50) | 22.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Metal Bank
For every potential investor in Metal, whether a beginner or expert, Metal Bank's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Metal Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Metal. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Metal Bank's price trends.Metal Bank Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Metal Bank stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Metal Bank could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Metal Bank by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Metal Bank Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Metal Bank stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Metal Bank shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Metal Bank stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Metal Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 60371.78 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.50) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.96 | |||
| Day Median Price | 0.026 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 0.0257 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0) |
Metal Bank Risk Indicators
The analysis of Metal Bank's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Metal Bank's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting metal stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.84 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 4.37 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.77 | |||
| Variance | 45.81 | |||
| Downside Variance | 43.81 | |||
| Semi Variance | 19.1 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (8.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Metal Bank
The number of cover stories for Metal Bank depends on current market conditions and Metal Bank's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Metal Bank is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Metal Bank's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Metal Bank Short Properties
Metal Bank's future price predictability will typically decrease when Metal Bank's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Metal Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Metal Bank's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Metal Bank's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 450.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 396.3 K |
Additional Tools for Metal Stock Analysis
When running Metal Bank's price analysis, check to measure Metal Bank's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Metal Bank is operating at the current time. Most of Metal Bank's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Metal Bank's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Metal Bank's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Metal Bank to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.