MBT Bancshares Pink Sheet Forward View

MBKL Stock  USD 25.52  0.27  1.07%   
MBT Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of now, The relative strength index (RSI) of MBT Bancshares' share price is at 56. This indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MBT Bancshares, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 56

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of MBT Bancshares' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of MBT Bancshares and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from MBT Bancshares' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with MBT Bancshares, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using MBT Bancshares hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MBT Bancshares from the perspective of MBT Bancshares response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of MBT Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 24.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74 and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.26.

MBT Bancshares after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 25.52  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MBT Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.

MBT Bancshares Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine MBT price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MBT using various technical indicators. When you analyze MBT charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for MBT Bancshares is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of MBT Bancshares value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

MBT Bancshares Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 5th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MBT Bancshares on the next trading day is expected to be 24.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.74, mean absolute percentage error of 0.88, and the sum of the absolute errors of 45.26.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MBT Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MBT Bancshares' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

MBT Bancshares Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest MBT Bancshares  MBT Bancshares Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

MBT Bancshares Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting MBT Bancshares' Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MBT Bancshares' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.11 and 27.27, respectively. We have considered MBT Bancshares' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
25.52
24.19
Expected Value
27.27
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MBT Bancshares pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MBT Bancshares pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.9864
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.742
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0295
SAESum of the absolute errors45.2628
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of MBT Bancshares. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict MBT Bancshares. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for MBT Bancshares

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MBT Bancshares. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
22.4725.5228.57
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
18.2721.3228.07
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
24.5925.6226.66
Details

MBT Bancshares After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of MBT Bancshares at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MBT Bancshares or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of MBT Bancshares, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

MBT Bancshares Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting MBT Bancshares' pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MBT Bancshares' historical news coverage. MBT Bancshares' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 22.47 and 28.57, respectively. We have considered MBT Bancshares' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
25.52
25.52
After-hype Price
28.57
Upside
MBT Bancshares is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MBT Bancshares is based on 3 months time horizon.

MBT Bancshares Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MBT Bancshares is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MBT Bancshares backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MBT Bancshares, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.22 
3.08
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
25.52
25.52
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

MBT Bancshares Hype Timeline

MBT Bancshares is now traded for 25.52. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. MBT is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.22%. %. The volatility of related hype on MBT Bancshares is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 25.52. The company last dividend was issued on the 9th of December 2022. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MBT Bancshares to cross-verify your projections.

MBT Bancshares Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to MBT Bancshares' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MBT Bancshares' future price movements. Getting to know how MBT Bancshares' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MBT Bancshares may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
HFBKHarford Bank 0.00 0 per month 1.19  0.05  3.29 (2.36) 13.08 
CEFCCommercial National Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.17  2.41 (1.06) 5.36 
HLFNHome Loan Financial 0.00 0 per month 0.34  0.19  1.64 (1.84) 9.29 
BAOBBaraboo Bancorporation 0.00 0 per month 0.93  0.18  2.45 (1.19) 11.56 
WSSHWest Shore Bank 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.17  1.86 (0.67) 6.26 
FFWCFFW Corporation 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.16  0.69 (0.55) 3.53 
LSFGLifestore Financial Group 0.00 0 per month 1.79  0  4.28 (4.08) 20.93 
NIDBNortheast Indiana Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 1.22  0.06  2.78 (2.68) 7.18 
PEBCPeoples Bancorp 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.16) 0.63 (1.02) 3.13 
CZNLCitizens National 0.00 0 per month 0.00  0.16  0.60  0.00  7.59 

Other Forecasting Options for MBT Bancshares

For every potential investor in MBT, whether a beginner or expert, MBT Bancshares' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MBT Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MBT. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MBT Bancshares' price trends.

MBT Bancshares Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MBT Bancshares pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MBT Bancshares could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MBT Bancshares by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

MBT Bancshares Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MBT Bancshares pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MBT Bancshares shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MBT Bancshares pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify MBT Bancshares entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

MBT Bancshares Risk Indicators

The analysis of MBT Bancshares' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MBT Bancshares' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mbt pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for MBT Bancshares

The number of cover stories for MBT Bancshares depends on current market conditions and MBT Bancshares' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MBT Bancshares is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MBT Bancshares' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Information on Investing in MBT Pink Sheet

MBT Bancshares financial ratios help investors to determine whether MBT Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in MBT with respect to the benefits of owning MBT Bancshares security.