Metcash Pink Sheet Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MCSHFDelisted Stock  USD 2.85  0.00  0.00%   
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Metcash Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.62. Metcash Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Metcash's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Metcash polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Metcash Limited as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Metcash Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Metcash Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Metcash Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Metcash's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Metcash Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metcash pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metcash pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria81.0957
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.0842
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0392
SAESum of the absolute errors3.6206
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Metcash historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Metcash

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metcash Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.852.852.85
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
2.162.163.14
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Metcash. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Metcash's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Metcash's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Metcash Limited.

Metcash Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Metcash pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Metcash could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Metcash by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Metcash Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Metcash pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Metcash shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Metcash pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Metcash Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Currently Active Assets on Macroaxis

Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate.
You can also try the Balance Of Power module to check stock momentum by analyzing Balance Of Power indicator and other technical ratios.

Other Consideration for investing in Metcash Pink Sheet

If you are still planning to invest in Metcash Limited check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Metcash's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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