Metcash Pink Sheet Forward View - Polynomial Regression
| MCSHFDelisted Stock | USD 2.85 0.00 0.00% |
Metcash Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Metcash's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 7th of February 2026 the relative strength index (rsi) of Metcash's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the pink sheet is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Metcash hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Metcash Limited from the perspective of Metcash response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Metcash Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08 and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.41. Metcash after-hype prediction price | USD 2.85 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Metcash |
Metcash Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Metcash price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Metcash using various technical indicators. When you analyze Metcash charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Metcash Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Metcash Limited on the next trading day is expected to be 2.64 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.08, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 3.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Metcash Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Metcash's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Metcash Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Metcash | Metcash Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Metcash pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Metcash pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 79.2503 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0811 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0375 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 3.4061 |
Predictive Modules for Metcash
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Metcash Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Metcash After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Metcash at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Metcash or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Metcash, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Metcash Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Metcash's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Metcash's historical news coverage. Metcash's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2.85 and 2.85, respectively. We have considered Metcash's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Metcash is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Metcash Limited is based on 3 months time horizon.
Metcash Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Metcash is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Metcash backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Metcash, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
2.85 | 2.85 | 0.00 |
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Metcash Hype Timeline
Metcash Limited is now traded for 2.85. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Metcash is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.0%. %. The volatility of related hype on Metcash is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2.85. About 58.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Metcash was now reported as 1.12. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate.Metcash Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Metcash's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Metcash's future price movements. Getting to know how Metcash's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Metcash may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| UVRBF | Universal Robina | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.23) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.83 | |
| OLGPF | Olam Group Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 6.87 | |
| GGGSY | Greggs plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.43 | 0.01 | 4.57 | (2.65) | 11.76 | |
| GGGSF | Greggs plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.83 | 0.03 | 5.34 | (4.60) | 18.53 | |
| CLBEY | Calbee Inc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.52 | 0 | 5.41 | (3.73) | 15.93 | |
| FSRCY | First Resources | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| BMRPF | BM European Value | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.68 | (0.03) | 3.79 | (4.46) | 12.93 | |
| BMRRY | BM European Value | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.22 | 0.02 | 4.14 | (3.49) | 11.88 | |
| TBLMF | Tiger Brands Limited | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.93 | 0.30 | 11.60 | (5.98) | 17.13 | |
| BICEF | Socit BIC SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.68 | (0.01) | 2.13 | (1.77) | 12.53 |
Metcash Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Metcash pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Metcash could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Metcash by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Metcash Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Metcash pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Metcash shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Metcash pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Metcash Limited entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Metcash Risk Indicators
The analysis of Metcash's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Metcash's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting metcash pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.85 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.95 | |||
| Variance | 48.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Metcash
The number of cover stories for Metcash depends on current market conditions and Metcash's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Metcash is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Metcash's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
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Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in rate. You can also try the Portfolio Anywhere module to track or share privately all of your investments from the convenience of any device.
Other Consideration for investing in Metcash Pink Sheet
If you are still planning to invest in Metcash Limited check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Metcash's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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