Melco International Pink Sheet Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MDEVY Stock | USD 3.00 0.00 0.00% |
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Melco International Development on the next trading day is expected to be 3.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.20. Melco Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Melco International's share price is approaching 49. This indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Melco International, making its price go up or down. Momentum 49
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Melco International hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Melco International Development from the perspective of Melco International response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Melco International Development on the next trading day is expected to be 3.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02 and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.20. Melco International after-hype prediction price | USD 3.0 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Melco |
Melco International Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Melco price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Melco using various technical indicators. When you analyze Melco charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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| Overlap Studies | ||
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| Volatility Indicators | ||
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Melco International Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Melco International Development on the next trading day is expected to be 3.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.20.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Melco Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Melco International's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Melco International Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
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Melco International Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Melco International's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Melco International's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.85 and 5.15, respectively. We have considered Melco International's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Melco International pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Melco International pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0204 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0068 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.2036 |
Predictive Modules for Melco International
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Melco International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Melco International's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Melco International After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Melco International at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Melco International or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Melco International, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Melco International Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Melco International's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Melco International's historical news coverage. Melco International's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.85 and 5.15, respectively. We have considered Melco International's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Melco International is moderately volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Melco International is based on 3 months time horizon.
Melco International Pink Sheet Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Melco International is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Melco International backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Melco International, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 |
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Melco International Hype Timeline
Melco International is now traded for 3.00. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Melco is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Melco International is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.00. The book value of the company was now reported as 14.18. The company recorded a loss per share of 1.61. Melco International had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Melco International to cross-verify your projections.Melco International Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Melco International's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Melco International's future price movements. Getting to know how Melco International's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Melco International may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| PYTCF | Playtech plc | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 0.00 | (5.38) | 26.99 | |
| PYTCY | Playtech PLC ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | (5.86) | 28.41 | |
| HISJF | HIS Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| TIANF | Tianneng Power International | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 9.64 | |
| MCHVY | MGM China Holdings | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 34.79 | |
| PMDKF | PT Mitra Adiperkasa | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| EDDRF | eDreams ODIGEO SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 2.90 | (5.44) | 47.85 | |
| ATNNF | Autoneum Holding AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| DMPZF | Dominos Pizza Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 0.00 | (2.04) | 17.42 | |
| IRLTF | Intralot SA Integrated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Other Forecasting Options for Melco International
For every potential investor in Melco, whether a beginner or expert, Melco International's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Melco Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Melco. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Melco International's price trends.Melco International Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Melco International pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Melco International could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Melco International by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Melco International Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Melco International pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Melco International shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Melco International pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Melco International Development entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Melco International Risk Indicators
The analysis of Melco International's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Melco International's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting melco pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5937 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.15 | |||
| Variance | 4.61 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Melco International
The number of cover stories for Melco International depends on current market conditions and Melco International's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Melco International is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Melco International's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Tools for Melco Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Melco International's price analysis, check to measure Melco International's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Melco International is operating at the current time. Most of Melco International's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Melco International's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Melco International's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Melco International to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.