Meiko Electronics Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MEC Stock  EUR 54.50  2.00  3.81%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meiko Electronics Co on the next trading day is expected to be 54.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32 and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.50. Meiko Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Meiko Electronics' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
A naive forecasting model for Meiko Electronics is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Meiko Electronics Co value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Meiko Electronics Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Meiko Electronics Co on the next trading day is expected to be 54.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.32, mean absolute percentage error of 3.73, and the sum of the absolute errors of 80.50.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Meiko Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Meiko Electronics' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Meiko Electronics Stock Forecast Pattern

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Meiko Electronics Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Meiko Electronics' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Meiko Electronics' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 50.09 and 57.96, respectively. We have considered Meiko Electronics' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
54.50
54.02
Expected Value
57.96
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Meiko Electronics stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Meiko Electronics stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria119.4273
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.3197
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0344
SAESum of the absolute errors80.5008
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Meiko Electronics Co. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Meiko Electronics. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Meiko Electronics

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Meiko Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
50.5654.5058.44
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
45.0448.9859.95
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Meiko Electronics

For every potential investor in Meiko, whether a beginner or expert, Meiko Electronics' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Meiko Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Meiko. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Meiko Electronics' price trends.

Meiko Electronics Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Meiko Electronics stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Meiko Electronics could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Meiko Electronics by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Meiko Electronics Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Meiko Electronics' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Meiko Electronics' current price.

Meiko Electronics Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Meiko Electronics stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Meiko Electronics shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Meiko Electronics stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Meiko Electronics Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Meiko Electronics Risk Indicators

The analysis of Meiko Electronics' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Meiko Electronics' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting meiko stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Meiko Stock

Meiko Electronics financial ratios help investors to determine whether Meiko Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Meiko with respect to the benefits of owning Meiko Electronics security.