Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast - Simple Regression
| MEG Stock | USD 22.98 0.45 1.92% |
Montrose Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Montrose Environmental's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 26th of January 2026, the relative strength index (RSI) of Montrose Environmental's share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Montrose Environmental, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.275 | EPS Estimate Current Year 1.2662 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.3982 | Wall Street Target Price 33.3333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.3225 |
Using Montrose Environmental hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Montrose Environmental Grp from the perspective of Montrose Environmental response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Montrose Environmental using Montrose Environmental's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Montrose using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Montrose Environmental's stock price.
Montrose Environmental Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Montrose Environmental's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Montrose. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Montrose Environmental stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 23.8785 | Short Percent 0.0715 | Short Ratio 7.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 2.1 M | 50 Day MA 25.212 |
Montrose Relative Strength Index
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.08.Montrose Environmental Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Montrose Environmental's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Montrose. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Montrose can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Montrose Environmental Grp. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Montrose Environmental's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Montrose Environmental.
Montrose Environmental Implied Volatility | 0.84 |
Montrose Environmental's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Montrose Environmental Grp stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Montrose Environmental's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Montrose Environmental stock will not fluctuate a lot when Montrose Environmental's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.08. Montrose Environmental after-hype prediction price | USD 22.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Montrose Environmental to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Montrose contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Montrose Environmental Grp will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0525% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Montrose Environmental trading at USD 22.98, that is roughly USD 0.0121 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Montrose Environmental's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Montrose Environmental Grp options at the current volatility level of 0.84%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Montrose Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Montrose Environmental's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Montrose Environmental's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Montrose Environmental stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Montrose Environmental's open interest, investors have to compare it to Montrose Environmental's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Montrose Environmental is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Montrose. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Montrose Environmental Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Montrose price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Montrose using various technical indicators. When you analyze Montrose charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Montrose Environmental Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Montrose Environmental Grp on the next trading day is expected to be 24.50 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.98, mean absolute percentage error of 1.46, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.08.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Montrose Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Montrose Environmental's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Montrose Environmental Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Montrose Environmental | Montrose Environmental Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Montrose Environmental Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Montrose Environmental's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Montrose Environmental's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 21.48 and 27.52, respectively. We have considered Montrose Environmental's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Montrose Environmental stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Montrose Environmental stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.4864 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.9849 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0398 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 60.0773 |
Predictive Modules for Montrose Environmental
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Montrose Environmental. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Montrose Environmental's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Montrose Environmental After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Montrose Environmental at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Montrose Environmental or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Montrose Environmental, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Montrose Environmental Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Montrose Environmental's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Montrose Environmental's historical news coverage. Montrose Environmental's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 19.98 and 26.00, respectively. We have considered Montrose Environmental's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Montrose Environmental is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Montrose Environmental is based on 3 months time horizon.
Montrose Environmental Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Montrose Environmental is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Montrose Environmental backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Montrose Environmental, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.22 | 3.02 | 0.01 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
22.98 | 22.99 | 0.04 |
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Montrose Environmental Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January Montrose Environmental is traded for 22.98. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.04. Montrose is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 22.99 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price rise on the next news is projected to be 0.04%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.22%. The volatility of related hype on Montrose Environmental is about 1864.2%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 23.02. The company reported the last year's revenue of 696.39 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (62.31 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 336.88 M. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Montrose Environmental to cross-verify your projections.Montrose Environmental Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Montrose Environmental's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Montrose Environmental's future price movements. Getting to know how Montrose Environmental's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Montrose Environmental may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| NVRI | Enviri | 0.96 | 30 per month | 0.64 | 0.14 | 3.94 | (2.10) | 30.32 | |
| ULCC | Frontier Group Holdings | (0.11) | 24 per month | 3.40 | 0.07 | 7.54 | (5.87) | 19.12 | |
| UP | Wheels Up Experience | 0.04 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 11.94 | (13.58) | 61.04 | |
| HTZ | Hertz Global Holdings | (0.20) | 7 per month | 3.32 | 0.04 | 7.63 | (5.46) | 43.57 | |
| WLFC | Willis Lease Finance | (1.89) | 11 per month | 2.20 | 0.18 | 5.67 | (3.93) | 11.05 | |
| PRSU | Pursuit Attractions and | (0.74) | 7 per month | 2.69 | (0.03) | 3.74 | (3.84) | 16.61 | |
| ERII | Energy Recovery | 0.04 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 3.26 | (2.98) | 21.23 | |
| SERV | Serve Robotics Common | 1.38 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 10.62 | (9.56) | 28.21 | |
| AEBI | Aebi Schmidt Holding | 0.25 | 4 per month | 2.06 | 0.07 | 4.24 | (2.86) | 9.69 | |
| SWIM | Latham Group | 1.89 | 16 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.41 | (4.80) | 12.43 |
Other Forecasting Options for Montrose Environmental
For every potential investor in Montrose, whether a beginner or expert, Montrose Environmental's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Montrose Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Montrose. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Montrose Environmental's price trends.Montrose Environmental Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Montrose Environmental stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Montrose Environmental could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Montrose Environmental by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Montrose Environmental Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Montrose Environmental stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Montrose Environmental shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Montrose Environmental stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Montrose Environmental Grp entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Montrose Environmental Risk Indicators
The analysis of Montrose Environmental's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Montrose Environmental's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting montrose stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.33 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.05 | |||
| Variance | 9.32 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Montrose Environmental
The number of cover stories for Montrose Environmental depends on current market conditions and Montrose Environmental's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Montrose Environmental is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Montrose Environmental's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Montrose Environmental Short Properties
Montrose Environmental's future price predictability will typically decrease when Montrose Environmental's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Montrose Environmental Grp often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Montrose Environmental's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Montrose Environmental's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 33.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 12.9 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Montrose Environmental to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Portfolio Comparator module to compare the composition, asset allocations and performance of any two portfolios in your account.
Is Environmental & Facilities Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Montrose Environmental. If investors know Montrose will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Montrose Environmental listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.84) | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.259 | Return On Assets | Return On Equity |
The market value of Montrose Environmental is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Montrose that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Montrose Environmental's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Montrose Environmental's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Montrose Environmental's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Montrose Environmental's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Montrose Environmental's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Montrose Environmental is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Montrose Environmental's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.