Manila Electric Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MER Stock | 479.00 2.20 0.46% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Manila Electric Co on the next trading day is expected to be 480.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.79 and the sum of the absolute errors of 467.33. Manila Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Manila Electric stock prices and determine the direction of Manila Electric Co's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Manila Electric's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
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Manila Electric Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Manila Electric Co on the next trading day is expected to be 480.21 with a mean absolute deviation of 7.79, mean absolute percentage error of 109.35, and the sum of the absolute errors of 467.33.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Manila Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Manila Electric's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Manila Electric Stock Forecast Pattern
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Manila Electric Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Manila Electric's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Manila Electric's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 477.91 and 482.51, respectively. We have considered Manila Electric's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Manila Electric stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Manila Electric stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 120.9672 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -1.6338 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 7.7888 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0166 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 467.3258 |
Predictive Modules for Manila Electric
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Manila Electric. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Manila Electric
For every potential investor in Manila, whether a beginner or expert, Manila Electric's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Manila Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Manila. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Manila Electric's price trends.Manila Electric Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Manila Electric stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Manila Electric could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Manila Electric by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Manila Electric Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Manila Electric's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Manila Electric's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Manila Electric Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Manila Electric stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Manila Electric shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Manila Electric stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Manila Electric Co entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Manila Electric Risk Indicators
The analysis of Manila Electric's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Manila Electric's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting manila stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.78 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.7 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.29 | |||
| Variance | 5.22 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.46 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.9 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.16) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.Other Information on Investing in Manila Stock
Manila Electric financial ratios help investors to determine whether Manila Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Manila with respect to the benefits of owning Manila Electric security.