Arrow Managed Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

MFTNX Fund  USD 6.89  0.10  1.47%   
Arrow Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Arrow Managed's mutual fund price is slightly above 67. This indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Arrow, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 67

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Arrow Managed's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Arrow Managed Futures, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Arrow Managed hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Arrow Managed Futures from the perspective of Arrow Managed response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Arrow Managed Futures on the next trading day is expected to be 6.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.75.

Arrow Managed after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 6.89  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arrow Managed to cross-verify your projections.

Arrow Managed Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Arrow price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Arrow using various technical indicators. When you analyze Arrow charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Arrow Managed price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Arrow Managed Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Arrow Managed Futures on the next trading day is expected to be 6.68 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.12, mean absolute percentage error of 0.02, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.75.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Arrow Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Arrow Managed's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Arrow Managed Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Arrow Managed Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Arrow Managed's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Arrow Managed's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.36 and 8.00, respectively. We have considered Arrow Managed's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
6.89
6.68
Expected Value
8.00
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Arrow Managed mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Arrow Managed mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.1923
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.125
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0207
SAESum of the absolute errors7.748
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Arrow Managed Futures historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Arrow Managed

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Arrow Managed Futures. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.576.898.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
5.977.298.61
Details

Arrow Managed After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Arrow Managed at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Arrow Managed or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Arrow Managed, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Arrow Managed Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Arrow Managed's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Arrow Managed's historical news coverage. Arrow Managed's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.57 and 8.21, respectively. We have considered Arrow Managed's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
6.89
6.89
After-hype Price
8.21
Upside
Arrow Managed is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Arrow Managed Futures is based on 3 months time horizon.

Arrow Managed Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Arrow Managed is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Arrow Managed backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Arrow Managed, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.28 
1.32
 0.00  
  0.92 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
6.89
6.89
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Arrow Managed Hype Timeline

Arrow Managed Futures is now traded for 6.89. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.92. Arrow is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.28%. %. The volatility of related hype on Arrow Managed is about 40.09%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 7.81. The company last dividend was issued on the 20th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Arrow Managed to cross-verify your projections.

Arrow Managed Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Arrow Managed's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Arrow Managed's future price movements. Getting to know how Arrow Managed's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Arrow Managed may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Arrow Managed

For every potential investor in Arrow, whether a beginner or expert, Arrow Managed's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Arrow Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Arrow. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Arrow Managed's price trends.

Arrow Managed Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Arrow Managed mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Arrow Managed could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Arrow Managed by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Arrow Managed Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Arrow Managed mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Arrow Managed shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Arrow Managed mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Arrow Managed Futures entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Arrow Managed Risk Indicators

The analysis of Arrow Managed's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Arrow Managed's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting arrow mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Arrow Managed

The number of cover stories for Arrow Managed depends on current market conditions and Arrow Managed's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Arrow Managed is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Arrow Managed's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Arrow Mutual Fund

Arrow Managed financial ratios help investors to determine whether Arrow Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Arrow with respect to the benefits of owning Arrow Managed security.
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