Mitsubishi UFJ Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MFZ Stock | EUR 15.15 0.19 1.24% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 15.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.41. Mitsubishi Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mitsubishi UFJ's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
The value of RSI of Mitsubishi UFJ's stock price is roughly 60. This indicates that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of 23rd of January 2026. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mitsubishi, making its price go up or down. Momentum 60
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Oversold | Overbought |
Using Mitsubishi UFJ hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial from the perspective of Mitsubishi UFJ response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 15.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.41. Mitsubishi UFJ after-hype prediction price | EUR 15.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Mitsubishi |
Mitsubishi UFJ Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mitsubishi price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mitsubishi using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mitsubishi charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mitsubishi UFJ Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial on the next trading day is expected to be 15.15 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.41.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mitsubishi Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mitsubishi UFJ's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mitsubishi UFJ Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mitsubishi UFJ | Mitsubishi UFJ Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mitsubishi UFJ Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mitsubishi UFJ's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mitsubishi UFJ's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 13.23 and 17.07, respectively. We have considered Mitsubishi UFJ's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mitsubishi UFJ stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mitsubishi UFJ stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4255 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0402 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.2034 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0148 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.41 |
Predictive Modules for Mitsubishi UFJ
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mitsubishi UFJ Financial. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mitsubishi UFJ After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mitsubishi UFJ at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mitsubishi UFJ or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mitsubishi UFJ, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mitsubishi UFJ Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mitsubishi UFJ's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mitsubishi UFJ's historical news coverage. Mitsubishi UFJ's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 13.25 and 17.05, respectively. We have considered Mitsubishi UFJ's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mitsubishi UFJ is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mitsubishi UFJ Financial is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mitsubishi UFJ Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mitsubishi UFJ is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mitsubishi UFJ backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mitsubishi UFJ, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.34 | 1.92 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
15.15 | 15.15 | 0.00 |
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Mitsubishi UFJ Hype Timeline
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial is now traded for 15.15on Frankfurt Exchange of Germany. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Mitsubishi is estimated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is estimated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.34%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mitsubishi UFJ is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.15. About 32.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.57. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial last dividend was issued on the 30th of March 2023. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next estimated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mitsubishi UFJ to cross-verify your projections.Mitsubishi UFJ Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mitsubishi UFJ's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mitsubishi UFJ's future price movements. Getting to know how Mitsubishi UFJ's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mitsubishi UFJ may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| EAC | Eastman Chemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.70 | 0.03 | 3.79 | (2.75) | 9.55 | |
| EEW | SBI Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.18 | 0.19 | 3.95 | (2.61) | 12.24 | |
| MSI | Mitsui Chemicals | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.88 | (0.02) | 1.90 | (1.90) | 6.39 | |
| SV2 | Selective Insurance Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.62 | (0.05) | 2.36 | (3.50) | 10.19 | |
| UEO | Westlake Chemical | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.32 | 0.04 | 5.43 | (3.82) | 11.77 | |
| RGPB | Reinsurance Group of | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.07) | 2.50 | (2.98) | 6.28 | |
| NRM | INSURANCE AUST GRP | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.36 | (2.25) | 7.90 | |
| 4JP | Japan Post Insurance | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.30 | 0.06 | 2.63 | (2.56) | 6.51 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mitsubishi UFJ
For every potential investor in Mitsubishi, whether a beginner or expert, Mitsubishi UFJ's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mitsubishi Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mitsubishi. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mitsubishi UFJ's price trends.Mitsubishi UFJ Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mitsubishi UFJ stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mitsubishi UFJ could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mitsubishi UFJ by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mitsubishi UFJ Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mitsubishi UFJ stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mitsubishi UFJ shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mitsubishi UFJ stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mitsubishi UFJ Financial entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Mitsubishi UFJ Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mitsubishi UFJ's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mitsubishi UFJ's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mitsubishi stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.45 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.67 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.9 | |||
| Variance | 3.63 | |||
| Downside Variance | 4.88 | |||
| Semi Variance | 2.8 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.40) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mitsubishi UFJ
The number of cover stories for Mitsubishi UFJ depends on current market conditions and Mitsubishi UFJ's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mitsubishi UFJ is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mitsubishi UFJ's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Mitsubishi Stock
When determining whether Mitsubishi UFJ Financial is a strong investment it is important to analyze Mitsubishi UFJ's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Mitsubishi UFJ's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Mitsubishi Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mitsubishi UFJ to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Risk-Return Analysis module to view associations between returns expected from investment and the risk you assume.