Vanguard Mega ETF Forward View - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MGK ETF | USD 84.26 1.39 1.68% |
Vanguard Mega's Double Exponential Smoothing forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Double Exponential Smoothing model projects Vanguard Mega at 84.72 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. The Double Exponential Smoothing output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of April
Over a 90-day horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing model forecasts Vanguard Mega at 84.72 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.84 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.01 , and sum of absolute errors of 49.29 .This represents a very tight forecast — the model closely tracks Vanguard Mega's recent price behavior. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Vanguard Mega | Vanguard Mega Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
This forecast for Vanguard Mega frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. Downside is estimated near 83.41 and upside near 86.03. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Double Exponential Smoothing model's error metrics for Vanguard Mega ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1799 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.8354 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0108 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 49.2868 |
Other Forecasting Options for Vanguard Mega
Analyzing Vanguard Mega's price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in Vanguard Mega's chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.Vanguard Mega Related Equities
The stocks listed below are peers of Vanguard Mega within the Large Growth space and offer context for ranking and strength. Peer review on balance sheet metrics shows how Vanguard Mega's capital structure stacks up against similar firms. Identifying peers that steadily beat or lag Vanguard Mega across many periods highlights durable competitive gaps. The data below allows side-by-side review across the most common financial metrics.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Vanguard Mega Market Strength Events
For investors tracking Vanguard Mega Cap, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of ETF behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in Vanguard Mega.
Vanguard Mega Risk Indicators
Analyzing Vanguard Mega's basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for vanguard etf. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for Vanguard Mega.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.22 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.3 | |||
| Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.69 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.49 | |||
| Expected Short fall | -1.03 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.