Global Quality Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Regression

MGQIX Fund  USD 13.37  0.02  0.15%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Global Quality Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 13.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.89. Global Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Global Quality's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Global Quality's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Global Quality Portfolio, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Global Quality hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Global Quality Portfolio from the perspective of Global Quality response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Global Quality Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 13.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.89.

Global Quality after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 13.37  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Quality to cross-verify your projections.

Global Quality Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Global price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Global using various technical indicators. When you analyze Global charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Global Quality price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Global Quality Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Global Quality Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 13.41 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.89.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Global Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Global Quality's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Global Quality Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Global QualityGlobal Quality Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Global Quality Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Global Quality's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Global Quality's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.68 and 14.13, respectively. We have considered Global Quality's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
13.37
13.41
Expected Value
14.13
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Global Quality mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Global Quality mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.8497
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1457
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.011
SAESum of the absolute errors8.8856
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Global Quality Portfolio historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Global Quality

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Quality Portfolio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.6513.3714.09
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.6113.3314.05
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
13.0513.3613.66
Details

Global Quality After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Global Quality at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Global Quality or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Global Quality, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Global Quality Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Global Quality's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Global Quality's historical news coverage. Global Quality's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 12.65 and 14.09, respectively. We have considered Global Quality's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
13.37
13.37
After-hype Price
14.09
Upside
Global Quality is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Global Quality Portfolio is based on 3 months time horizon.

Global Quality Mutual Fund Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Global Quality is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Global Quality backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Global Quality, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.05 
0.72
 0.00  
  0.02 
1 Events / Month
2 Events / Month
Very soon
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
13.37
13.37
0.00 
800.00  
Notes

Global Quality Hype Timeline

Global Quality Portfolio is now traded for 13.37. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.02. Global is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.05%. %. The volatility of related hype on Global Quality is about 164.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 13.35. The company last dividend was issued on the 16th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be very soon.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Global Quality to cross-verify your projections.

Global Quality Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Global Quality's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Global Quality's future price movements. Getting to know how Global Quality's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Global Quality may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MSPTXGlobal Advantage Portfolio 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.50 (3.32) 8.11 
MIGIXGlobal Advantage Portfolio 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 2.47 (3.28) 8.05 
GLNAXMfs Global New 0.00 0 per month 0.58  0.04  1.14 (1.03) 3.79 
TTDAXToews Tactical Defensive(3.63)4 per month 0.74 (0.04) 1.05 (1.40) 3.40 
JASCXJames Small Cap(0.68)1 per month 0.61  0.09  2.05 (1.38) 5.29 
GESIXLazard Global Equity(0.02)2 per month 0.00 (0.17) 0.83 (1.30) 2.95 
GESOXLazard Global Equity(0.02)9 per month 0.00 (0.17) 0.84 (1.25) 3.00 
DLCMXDoubleline Strategic Modity 0.00 1 per month 0.56  0.05  1.37 (0.99) 2.91 
SEMCXSimt Mid Cap(0.02)12 per month 0.00  0.12  1.52 (1.40) 28.48 
RLGAXRiverfront Dynamic Equity(0.02)8 per month 0.45 (0.05) 0.76 (0.82) 2.21 

Other Forecasting Options for Global Quality

For every potential investor in Global, whether a beginner or expert, Global Quality's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Global Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Global. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Global Quality's price trends.

Global Quality Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Global Quality mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Global Quality could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Global Quality by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Global Quality Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Global Quality mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Global Quality shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Global Quality mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Global Quality Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Global Quality Risk Indicators

The analysis of Global Quality's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Global Quality's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting global mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Global Quality

The number of cover stories for Global Quality depends on current market conditions and Global Quality's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Global Quality is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Global Quality's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

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Other Information on Investing in Global Mutual Fund

Global Quality financial ratios help investors to determine whether Global Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Global with respect to the benefits of owning Global Quality security.
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