American Century Etf Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MID Etf | USD 67.16 0.50 0.74% |
American Etf outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast American Century stock prices and determine the direction of American Century Mid's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of American Century's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, The relative strength momentum indicator of American Century's share price is at 50. This indicates that the etf is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling American Century, making its price go up or down. Momentum 50
Impartial
Oversold | Overbought |
Using American Century hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of American Century Mid from the perspective of American Century response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Century Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 67.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52 and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.29. American Century after-hype prediction price | USD 67.17 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as etf price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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American Century Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine American price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for American using various technical indicators. When you analyze American charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
American Century Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of American Century Mid on the next trading day is expected to be 67.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.52, mean absolute percentage error of 0.43, and the sum of the absolute errors of 31.29.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict American Etf prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that American Century's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
American Century Etf Forecast Pattern
| Backtest American Century | American Century Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
American Century Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting American Century's Etf value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. American Century's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 66.17 and 68.15, respectively. We have considered American Century's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of American Century etf data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent American Century etf, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.4348 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0175 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5215 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0079 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 31.29 |
Predictive Modules for American Century
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American Century Mid. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.American Century After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of American Century at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in American Century or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Etf prices, such as prices of American Century, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
American Century Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting American Century's etf value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on American Century's historical news coverage. American Century's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 66.18 and 68.16, respectively. We have considered American Century's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
American Century is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of American Century Mid is based on 3 months time horizon.
American Century Etf Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a ETF such as American Century is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading American Century backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Etf price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with American Century, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.99 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 10 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
67.16 | 67.17 | 0.01 |
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American Century Hype Timeline
On the 26th of January American Century Mid is traded for 67.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.0. American is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 67.17 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.01%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.03%. The volatility of related hype on American Century is about 9900.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 67.16. Considering the 90-day investment horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections.American Century Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to American Century's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict American Century's future price movements. Getting to know how American Century's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how American Century may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LCLG | Advisors Series Trust | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.16 | (0.03) | 1.47 | (2.33) | 5.52 | |
| FDCF | Fidelity Disruptive Communications | (0.50) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.59 | (2.09) | 4.74 | |
| MMLG | First Trust Exchange Traded | 0.18 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.62 | (2.26) | 5.30 | |
| FITE | SPDR SP Kensho | 0.41 | 3 per month | 1.50 | 0.04 | 2.20 | (2.43) | 5.87 | |
| XBJA | Innovator ETFs Trust | (0.01) | 2 per month | 0.13 | (0.17) | 0.38 | (0.25) | 1.75 | |
| AFMC | First Trust Active | 0.09 | 3 per month | 0.76 | 0.04 | 1.75 | (1.55) | 3.90 | |
| STNC | Hennessy Stance ESG | (0.06) | 1 per month | 0.70 | (0.01) | 1.48 | (1.30) | 3.02 | |
| AGIX | KraneShares Artificial Intelligence | (0.17) | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 1.91 | (3.00) | 6.18 | |
| PSMJ | Pacer Swan SOS | 0.19 | 2 per month | 0.16 | (0.16) | 0.45 | (0.35) | 1.53 | |
| DWAW | AdvisorShares Dorsey Wright | (0.23) | 1 per month | 0.99 | (0.02) | 1.19 | (1.73) | 3.70 |
Other Forecasting Options for American Century
For every potential investor in American, whether a beginner or expert, American Century's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. American Etf price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in American. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying American Century's price trends.American Century Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with American Century etf to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of American Century could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing American Century by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
American Century Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how American Century etf reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading American Century shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying American Century etf market strength indicators, traders can identify American Century Mid entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
American Century Risk Indicators
The analysis of American Century's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in American Century's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting american etf prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8156 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.02 | |||
| Variance | 1.03 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.24 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.77) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for American Century
The number of cover stories for American Century depends on current market conditions and American Century's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that American Century is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about American Century's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of American Century to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Correlation Analysis module to reduce portfolio risk simply by holding instruments which are not perfectly correlated.
The market value of American Century Mid is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of American that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of American Century's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is American Century's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because American Century's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect American Century's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between American Century's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if American Century is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, American Century's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.