Naked Wines Pink Sheet Forward View - Polynomial Regression

Polynomial Regression is applied to Naked Wines plc's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. The Polynomial Regression model projects Naked Wines at 3.15 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Polynomial Regression output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
Polynomial regression for Naked Wines fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Naked Wines at 3.15 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.29 , mean absolute percentage error of Huge , and sum of absolute errors of 17.58 .
This indicates weak forecast accuracy — the model has limited predictive reliability for Naked Wines' at this horizon. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Forecasted Value

This forecast for Naked Wines frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. The forecast band spans 0.00 to 15.91. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Market Value
0.00
3.15
Expected Value
15.91

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Naked Wines pink sheet. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.6899
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.2883
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0
SAESum of the absolute errors17.5834
The model takes the form: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm. Higher-degree polynomials fit Naked Wines plc historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for Naked Wines

Naked Wines' daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Naked Wines often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Naked Wines Pink Sheet data examines overnight jumps between Naked Wines' closing and opening prices.

Naked Wines Related Equities

The peer firms below within the Beverages—Wineries & Distilleries space frame Naked Wines' pricing and running costs in context. Looking at Naked Wines' pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Peer review is most informative when paired with absolute pricing and trend checks. This type of review is most informative when done often to track how positions shift over time.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Naked Wines Risk Indicators

Assessing Naked Wines' risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for naked wines pink sheet. The level of risk embedded in Naked Wines' feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Naked Wines' downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

More Resources for Naked Wines Pink Sheet Analysis

Financial ratios for Naked Wines organize key financial data into structured relationships. The structure maintains uniform comparisons across financial reports.