Mount Logan Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MLCI Stock | 8.13 0.20 2.40% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mount Logan Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 8.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.85. Mount Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Mount Logan's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
As of 23rd of January 2026 the relative strength indicator of Mount Logan's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Mount Logan hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mount Logan Capital from the perspective of Mount Logan response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mount Logan Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 8.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.85. Mount Logan after-hype prediction price | USD 8.16 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mount Logan to cross-verify your projections. Mount Logan Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Mount price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mount using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mount charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Mount Logan Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mount Logan Capital on the next trading day is expected to be 8.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.85.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mount Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mount Logan's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Mount Logan Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Mount Logan | Mount Logan Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Mount Logan Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Mount Logan's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mount Logan's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 5.43 and 10.90, respectively. We have considered Mount Logan's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mount Logan stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mount Logan stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1486 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0072 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1475 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0188 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.8502 |
Predictive Modules for Mount Logan
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mount Logan Capital. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mount Logan's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Mount Logan After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Mount Logan at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mount Logan or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mount Logan, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Mount Logan Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Mount Logan's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mount Logan's historical news coverage. Mount Logan's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 5.43 and 10.89, respectively. We have considered Mount Logan's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Mount Logan is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mount Logan Capital is based on 3 months time horizon.
Mount Logan Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mount Logan is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mount Logan backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mount Logan, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 2.74 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
8.13 | 8.16 | 0.12 |
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Mount Logan Hype Timeline
Mount Logan Capital is now traded for 8.13. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.01, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Mount is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 8.16 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 0.12%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Mount Logan is about 3702.7%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 8.14. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 195.66 M. Net Income was 5.59 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mount Logan to cross-verify your projections.Mount Logan Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Mount Logan's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mount Logan's future price movements. Getting to know how Mount Logan's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mount Logan may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| STEX | Streamex Corp | 0.07 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 10.99 | (8.27) | 22.87 | |
| SSSS | SuRo Capital Corp | 0.06 | 9 per month | 1.91 | 0.01 | 3.89 | (3.42) | 17.41 | |
| LIEN | Chicago Atlantic BDC | 0.09 | 5 per month | 1.40 | 0.02 | 2.70 | (1.71) | 7.58 | |
| TPVG | Triplepoint Venture Growth | 0.05 | 11 per month | 1.44 | 0.15 | 2.51 | (2.58) | 8.89 | |
| MPV | Barings Participation Investors | (0.04) | 8 per month | 1.99 | (0.03) | 2.69 | (3.22) | 9.22 | |
| GIWWU | GigInternational1 Unit | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| HRZN | Horizon Technology Finance | (0.01) | 8 per month | 0.79 | 0.12 | 2.53 | (1.59) | 11.64 | |
| FBLA | FB Bancorp Common | (0.02) | 4 per month | 0.57 | 0.05 | 1.96 | (1.31) | 4.10 | |
| SWKH | SWK Holdings Corp | 0.26 | 7 per month | 0.79 | (0.01) | 1.59 | (1.05) | 9.41 | |
| TONX | TON Strategy Co | 0.28 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 12.47 | (10.10) | 31.21 |
Other Forecasting Options for Mount Logan
For every potential investor in Mount, whether a beginner or expert, Mount Logan's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mount Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mount. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mount Logan's price trends.Mount Logan Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mount Logan stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mount Logan could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mount Logan by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Mount Logan Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mount Logan stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mount Logan shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mount Logan stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mount Logan Capital entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 2016.83 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.74) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 8.2 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 8.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.20) |
Mount Logan Risk Indicators
The analysis of Mount Logan's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mount Logan's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mount stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.83 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.6 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.67 | |||
| Variance | 7.14 | |||
| Downside Variance | 7.47 | |||
| Semi Variance | 6.75 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.94) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Mount Logan
The number of cover stories for Mount Logan depends on current market conditions and Mount Logan's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mount Logan is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mount Logan's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Mount Logan Short Properties
Mount Logan's future price predictability will typically decrease when Mount Logan's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mount Logan Capital often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mount Logan's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mount Logan's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.2 M | |
| Dividends Paid | 1.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 203.7 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mount Logan to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Financial Widgets module to easily integrated Macroaxis content with over 30 different plug-and-play financial widgets.
Is Property & Casualty Insurance space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Mount Logan. If investors know Mount will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Mount Logan listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Mount Logan Capital is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Mount that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Mount Logan's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Mount Logan's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Mount Logan's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Mount Logan's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Mount Logan's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Mount Logan is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Mount Logan's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.