Maple Leaf Pink Sheet Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing

MLFNF Stock  USD 16.06  0.06  0.37%   
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Maple Leaf Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 16.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.25. Maple Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Maple Leaf's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
  
Triple exponential smoothing for Maple Leaf - also known as the Winters method - is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model with the addition of periodicity (seasonality) component. Simple exponential smoothing technique works best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When Maple Leaf prices exhibit either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in Maple Leaf price movement. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models address any seasonality of Maple Leaf Foods.

Maple Leaf Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Maple Leaf Foods on the next trading day is expected to be 16.00 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.05, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.25.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Maple Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Maple Leaf's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Maple Leaf Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

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Maple Leaf Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Maple Leaf's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Maple Leaf's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.64 and 17.36, respectively. We have considered Maple Leaf's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.06
16.00
Expected Value
17.36
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Maple Leaf pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Maple Leaf pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information CriteriaHuge
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0558
MADMean absolute deviation0.1568
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0098
SAESum of the absolute errors9.25
As with simple exponential smoothing, in triple exponential smoothing models past Maple Leaf observations are given exponentially smaller weights as the observations get older. In other words, recent observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older Maple Leaf Foods observations.

Predictive Modules for Maple Leaf

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Maple Leaf Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.6916.0617.43
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.6115.9817.35
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Maple Leaf

For every potential investor in Maple, whether a beginner or expert, Maple Leaf's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Maple Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Maple. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Maple Leaf's price trends.

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Maple Leaf Foods Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Maple Leaf's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Maple Leaf's current price.

Maple Leaf Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Maple Leaf pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Maple Leaf shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Maple Leaf pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Maple Leaf Foods entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Maple Leaf Risk Indicators

The analysis of Maple Leaf's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Maple Leaf's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting maple pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

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Other Information on Investing in Maple Pink Sheet

Maple Leaf financial ratios help investors to determine whether Maple Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Maple with respect to the benefits of owning Maple Leaf security.