Mlk Foods Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MLK Stock   1.98  0.10  4.81%   
Mlk Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
As of today, The value of RSI of Mlk Foods' share price is at 57. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mlk Foods, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 57

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Mlk Foods' future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Mlk Foods and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Mlk Foods' fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mlk Foods Public, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Mlk Foods hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mlk Foods Public from the perspective of Mlk Foods response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mlk Foods Public on the next trading day is expected to be 1.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04 and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.29.

Mlk Foods after-hype prediction price

    
  PLN 1.98  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mlk Foods to cross-verify your projections.

Mlk Foods Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mlk price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mlk using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mlk charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Mlk Foods simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Mlk Foods Public are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Mlk Foods Public prices get older.

Mlk Foods Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Mlk Foods Public on the next trading day is expected to be 1.98 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.04, mean absolute percentage error of 0, and the sum of the absolute errors of 2.29.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mlk Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mlk Foods' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mlk Foods Stock Forecast Pattern

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Mlk Foods Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mlk Foods' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mlk Foods' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.02 and 5.22, respectively. We have considered Mlk Foods' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
1.98
1.98
Expected Value
5.22
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mlk Foods stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mlk Foods stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria112.4366
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.0018
MADMean absolute deviation0.0375
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors2.29
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Mlk Foods Public forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Mlk Foods observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Mlk Foods

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mlk Foods Public. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Mlk Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
0.101.985.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
0.081.644.87
Details

Mlk Foods After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mlk Foods at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mlk Foods or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Mlk Foods, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mlk Foods Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mlk Foods' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mlk Foods' historical news coverage. Mlk Foods' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.10 and 5.21, respectively. We have considered Mlk Foods' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
1.98
1.98
After-hype Price
5.21
Upside
Mlk Foods is very risky at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mlk Foods Public is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mlk Foods Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Mlk Foods is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mlk Foods backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mlk Foods, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.18 
3.24
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
1.98
1.98
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Mlk Foods Hype Timeline

Mlk Foods Public is now traded for 1.98on Warsaw Stock Exchange of Poland. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Mlk is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.18%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mlk Foods is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 1.98. About 79.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.93. Mlk Foods Public last dividend was issued on the 31st of October 2014. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mlk Foods to cross-verify your projections.

Mlk Foods Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mlk Foods' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mlk Foods' future price movements. Getting to know how Mlk Foods' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mlk Foods may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Mlk Foods

For every potential investor in Mlk, whether a beginner or expert, Mlk Foods' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mlk Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mlk. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mlk Foods' price trends.

Mlk Foods Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mlk Foods stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mlk Foods could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mlk Foods by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mlk Foods Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mlk Foods stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mlk Foods shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mlk Foods stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Mlk Foods Public entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mlk Foods Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mlk Foods' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mlk Foods' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mlk stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mlk Foods

The number of cover stories for Mlk Foods depends on current market conditions and Mlk Foods' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mlk Foods is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mlk Foods' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Mlk Foods Short Properties

Mlk Foods' future price predictability will typically decrease when Mlk Foods' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Mlk Foods Public often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Mlk Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mlk Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding31.2 M
Cash And Short Term Investments5.4 M

Additional Tools for Mlk Stock Analysis

When running Mlk Foods' price analysis, check to measure Mlk Foods' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Mlk Foods is operating at the current time. Most of Mlk Foods' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Mlk Foods' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Mlk Foods' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Mlk Foods to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.