MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Stock Forecast - Simple Moving Average
| MLTX Stock | USD 16.16 0.09 0.55% |
MoonLake Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, The RSI of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's share price is at 57. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its resistance level. The main idea of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling MoonLake Immunotherapeuti, making its price go up or down. Momentum 57
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter (0.92) | EPS Estimate Current Year (3.60) | EPS Estimate Next Year (3.76) | Wall Street Target Price 18.6333 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter (0.92) |
Using MoonLake Immunotherapeuti hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics from the perspective of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards MoonLake Immunotherapeuti using MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards MoonLake using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's stock price.
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Short Interest
An investor who is long MoonLake Immunotherapeuti may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about MoonLake Immunotherapeuti and may potentially protect profits, hedge MoonLake Immunotherapeuti with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 33.2182 | Short Percent 0.162 | Short Ratio 3.61 | Shares Short Prior Month 4.9 M | 50 Day MA 14.1988 |
MoonLake Relative Strength Index
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 16.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.70.MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in MoonLake. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding MoonLake can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around MoonLake Immunotherapeutics. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about MoonLake Immunotherapeuti.
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Implied Volatility | 1.05 |
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock will not fluctuate a lot when MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Moving Average forecasted value of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 16.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.70. MoonLake Immunotherapeuti after-hype prediction price | USD 14.8 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current MoonLake contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that MoonLake Immunotherapeutics will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0656% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With MoonLake Immunotherapeuti trading at USD 16.16, that is roughly USD 0.0106 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's daily price movement you should consider acquiring MoonLake Immunotherapeutics options at the current volatility level of 1.05%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 MoonLake Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's open interest, investors have to compare it to MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in MoonLake. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine MoonLake price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for MoonLake using various technical indicators. When you analyze MoonLake charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 29th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Moving Average forecasted value of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics on the next trading day is expected to be 16.20 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.64, mean absolute percentage error of 1.16, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.70.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MoonLake Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest MoonLake Immunotherapeuti | MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.66 and 22.75, respectively. We have considered MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.5799 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1572 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6389 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0447 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.695 |
Predictive Modules for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MoonLake Immunotherapeuti. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in MoonLake Immunotherapeuti or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's historical news coverage. MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.26 and 21.34, respectively. We have considered MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is based on 3 months time horizon.
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading MoonLake Immunotherapeuti backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with MoonLake Immunotherapeuti, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.04 | 6.54 | 1.45 | 0.53 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
16.16 | 14.80 | 8.92 |
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MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Hype Timeline
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is now traded for 16.16. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -1.45, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.53. MoonLake is anticipated to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 14.8. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -8.92%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.04%. The volatility of related hype on MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is about 1282.35%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 15.63. About 61.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti was now reported as 4.54. The company recorded a loss per share of 3.33. MoonLake Immunotherapeuti had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti to cross-verify your projections.MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's future price movements. Getting to know how MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how MoonLake Immunotherapeuti may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| RGNX | Regenxbio | (0.21) | 8 per month | 4.24 | 0.02 | 7.94 | (6.66) | 23.68 | |
| MBX | MBX Biosciences Common | (2.48) | 9 per month | 3.95 | 0.24 | 14.40 | (7.47) | 29.11 | |
| ABSI | Absci Corp | (0.07) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 8.58 | (7.91) | 27.80 | |
| VSTM | Verastem | (0.54) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.83 | (6.80) | 29.79 | |
| MGTX | MeiraGTx Holdings PLC | 0.38 | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 5.08 | (5.18) | 14.00 | |
| ERAS | Erasca Inc | (0.48) | 9 per month | 2.66 | 0.30 | 15.04 | (4.76) | 50.26 | |
| VTYX | Ventyx Biosciences | (1.59) | 7 per month | 3.58 | 0.21 | 14.60 | (6.90) | 86.34 | |
| AVBP | ArriVent BioPharma Common | (0.17) | 4 per month | 3.14 | 0.08 | 6.71 | (6.03) | 18.12 | |
| OLMA | Olema Pharmaceuticals | 0.04 | 11 per month | 2.77 | 0.14 | 9.82 | (5.86) | 145.73 | |
| CTMX | CytomX Therapeutics | 0.02 | 8 per month | 4.28 | 0.12 | 8.13 | (8.51) | 29.97 |
Other Forecasting Options for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti
For every potential investor in MoonLake, whether a beginner or expert, MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MoonLake Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MoonLake. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's price trends.MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MoonLake Immunotherapeuti by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MoonLake Immunotherapeuti shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MoonLake Immunotherapeuti stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MoonLake Immunotherapeutics entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 16.16 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 16.16 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.09) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 57.87 |
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Risk Indicators
The analysis of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting moonlake stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.85 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.69 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 6.3 | |||
| Variance | 39.68 | |||
| Downside Variance | 17.65 | |||
| Semi Variance | 13.59 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.46) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti
The number of cover stories for MoonLake Immunotherapeuti depends on current market conditions and MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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MoonLake Immunotherapeuti Short Properties
MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's future price predictability will typically decrease when MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of MoonLake Immunotherapeutics often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 62.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 448 M |
Additional Tools for MoonLake Stock Analysis
When running MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's price analysis, check to measure MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MoonLake Immunotherapeuti is operating at the current time. Most of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MoonLake Immunotherapeuti's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MoonLake Immunotherapeuti to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.