Merit Medical Stock Forward View - 4 Period Moving Average

Key Indicators . 4 Period Moving Average . Stocks . USA . 
Stock . Merit Medical Systems
MMSI Stock  USD 61.27  -1.06  -1.70%   
4 Period Moving Average is applied to Merit Medical Systems's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. The 4 Period Moving Average model projects Merit Medical at 61.62 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This 4 Period Moving Average output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.
The four-period moving average forecast for Merit Medical Systems replaces each daily value with the mean of that value and the four preceding closing prices. This smoothing window is wide enough to dampen short-term noise while still responding to recent price shifts in Merit Medical.

4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 10th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average model forecasts Merit Medical at 61.62 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 1.41 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.02 , and sum of absolute errors of 81.91 .
This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Merit Medical's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Merit Medical  Merit Medical Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Forecasted Value

Merit Medical's next-session forecast estimates practical downside and upside boundaries based on the model's historical fit. The current forecast range spans downside near 59.50 and upside near 63.75. The moderate spread reflects defined uncertainty around the forecast.
Market Value
61.27
59.50
Downside
61.62
Expected Value
63.75
Upside
Target Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the 4 Period Moving Average model's error metrics for Merit Medical stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.7991
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors 0.8412
MADMean absolute deviation1.4122
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0203
SAESum of the absolute errors81.9075
The model is suited for higher-volatility price series where a two-period average would be too reactive. It does not extrapolate a trend equation, so its forecasting utility is limited to one or two periods ahead. Tighter error metrics (lower MAD/MAPE) indicate that Merit Medical price movement is well-captured by this smoothing window.

Other Forecasting Options for Merit Medical

The distribution of Merit Medical's daily returns is typically non-normal, with fatter tails than a Gaussian model predicts. This reveals hidden support and resistance zones in Merit Medical's chart that simple price charts miss.
Naive Prediction
Simple Exponential Smoothing
Double Exponential Smoothing
Triple Exponential Smoothing
Simple Regression
Polynomial Regression
Simple Moving Average
4 Period Moving Average
8 Period Moving Average
20 Period Moving Average

Merit Medical Related Equities

Merit Medical's market space within the Health Care space is illustrated by the firms listed below. Looking at Merit Medical's pricing multiples next to these peers shows if the stock trades at a premium or discount. Persistent outperformance or underperformance by specific peers relative to Merit Medical often signals structural advantages or weaknesses. Tracking Merit Medical's results against these peers over time helps spot rising trends early.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Merit Medical Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Merit Medical stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Merit Medical.
Accumulation Distribution21907.74
Daily Balance Of Power-0.35
Rate Of Daily Change0.98
Day Median Price62.65
Day Typical Price62.19
Price Action Indicator-1.90
Period Momentum Indicator-1.06
Relative Strength Index35.44

Merit Medical Risk Indicators

Assessing Merit Medical's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for merit medical stock. The level of risk embedded in Merit Medical's feeds directly into exposure calibration.
Mean Deviation1.55
Standard Deviation2.14
Variance4.56
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Merit Medical Short Properties

Short-interest signals around Merit Medical reveal whether skeptical positioning is starting to pressure price predictability and market tone. Comparing short sentiment with trend behavior, volume, and the broader market narrative provides a more grounded view.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding60.46 million
Cash And Short Term Investments448.5 million
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