Moog Stock Forward View - Polynomial Regression

MOG-A Stock

USD 316.29 -2.27 -0.71%

Polynomial Regression is applied to Moog Inc's daily closing prices, and the resulting forecast is presented with accuracy metrics. Wide deviation between fitted and observed values suggests the model's assumptions may not match current market conditions. These values update automatically with each new closing price. The Polynomial Regression model projects Moog at 322.10 for the next trading day, above the most recent closing price. This Polynomial Regression output is provided as analytical reference and does not constitute a trading recommendation.

Polynomial regression for Moog fits a curved line through historical price points using time as the independent variable. Unlike simple regression, which fits only a straight line, polynomial regression can capture nonlinear price trends including acceleration and deceleration.

Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 8th of May

Over a 90-day horizon, the Polynomial Regression model forecasts Moog at 322.10 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 9.79 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 596.91 .

This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of Moog's price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.

Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Moog

Moog Price Prediction

Research Analysis

Forecasted Value

This forecast for Moog frames the expected trading range using downside and upside bounds rather than a single point target. Downside is estimated near 319.95 and upside near 324.26. The narrow range indicates limited short-term dispersion.

Market Value

316.29

319.95

Downside

322.10

Expected Value

324.26

Upside

Target Odds

Above Odds

Below Odds

Model Predictive Factors

The table below summarizes the Polynomial Regression model's error metrics for Moog stock. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.

AIC	Akaike Information Criteria	122.9738
Bias	Arithmetic mean of the errors	None
MAD	Mean absolute deviation	9.7854
MAPE	Mean absolute percentage error	0.031
SAE	Sum of the absolute errors	596.9121

The model takes the form: Y = a₀ + a₁*X + a₂*X² + a₃*X³ + ... + a_m*X^m. Higher-degree polynomials fit Moog Inc historical data more closely but are more prone to overfitting, which can produce unreliable extrapolations beyond the observed price range.

Other Forecasting Options for Moog

Moog's daily price returns decompose into trend, seasonal, and residual components. Divergence between short-term and long-term averages in Moog often signals an upcoming reversal or acceleration. Gap analysis of Moog Stock data examines overnight jumps between Moog's closing and opening prices.

Moog Related Equities

Sizing up Moog against these stocks within the Industrials space shows how it compares on key financial measures. Profit comparisons show whether Moog earns above or below average returns next to its peers.

Gates Industrial MSA Safety Flowserve Amentum Holdings ADT Inc Federal Signal Ralliant Common Primoris Services CAE Inc Middleby Corp American Airlines Group Alcoa Corp Apple Inc Best Buy Co Citigroup

Risk & Return

Correlation

Moog Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators for Moog stock provide a framework for assessing security responsiveness. A rising Accumulation/Distribution line alongside rising price confirms institutional buying interest in Moog. Median and Typical Price smooth out intraday extremes, providing a cleaner reference level for evaluating Moog sessions.

	Accumulation Distribution	3507.46
	Daily Balance Of Power	-0.33
	Rate Of Daily Change	0.99
	Day Median Price	318.72
	Day Typical Price	317.91
	Price Action Indicator	-3.56
	Period Momentum Indicator	-2.27
	Relative Strength Index	52.56

Moog Risk Indicators

Assessing Moog's risk indicators is a structured way to evaluate the risk-return trade-off for moog stock. The level of risk embedded in Moog's feeds directly into exposure calibration. Comparing Moog's downside variance to total variance reveals whether the risk profile is skewed toward losses.

	Mean Deviation	1.57
	Standard Deviation	2.14
	Variance	4.56

Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Moog Short Properties

Reviewing short-oriented indicators for Moog is useful because long and short participants often create very different signals for timing and volatility. This is applicable when the question is whether bearish pressure is starting to shape the market's reaction function.

	Common Stock Shares Outstanding	32.08 million
	Cash And Short Term Investments	62.01 million

	Naive Prediction
	Simple Exponential Smoothing
	Double Exponential Smoothing
	Triple Exponential Smoothing
	Simple Regression
	Polynomial Regression
	Simple Moving Average
	4 Period Moving Average
	8 Period Moving Average
	20 Period Moving Average