Madusari Murni Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MOLI Stock | IDR 224.00 2.00 0.90% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Madusari Murni Indah on the next trading day is expected to be 223.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.48 and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.89. Madusari Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
Madusari |
Madusari Murni Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Madusari Murni Indah on the next trading day is expected to be 223.88 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.48, mean absolute percentage error of 12.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 148.89.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Madusari Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Madusari Murni's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Madusari Murni Stock Forecast Pattern
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Madusari Murni Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Madusari Murni's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Madusari Murni's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 222.37 and 225.39, respectively. We have considered Madusari Murni's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Madusari Murni stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Madusari Murni stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.7752 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.3677 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 2.4816 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0105 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 148.8934 |
Predictive Modules for Madusari Murni
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Madusari Murni Indah. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Madusari Murni
For every potential investor in Madusari, whether a beginner or expert, Madusari Murni's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Madusari Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Madusari. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Madusari Murni's price trends.Madusari Murni Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Madusari Murni stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Madusari Murni could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Madusari Murni by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Madusari Murni Indah Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Madusari Murni's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Madusari Murni's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Madusari Murni Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Madusari Murni stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Madusari Murni shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Madusari Murni stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Madusari Murni Indah entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Madusari Murni Risk Indicators
The analysis of Madusari Murni's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Madusari Murni's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting madusari stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.16 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.57 | |||
| Variance | 2.45 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
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Madusari Murni financial ratios help investors to determine whether Madusari Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Madusari with respect to the benefits of owning Madusari Murni security.