Massmutual Premier Mutual Fund Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MOORX Fund | USD 19.16 0.13 0.67% |
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Massmutual Premier Small on the next trading day is expected to be 19.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.88. Massmutual Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
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Massmutual Premier Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 12th of December 2024
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Massmutual Premier Small on the next trading day is expected to be 19.16 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.15, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8.88.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Massmutual Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Massmutual Premier's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Massmutual Premier Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern
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Massmutual Premier Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Massmutual Premier's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Massmutual Premier's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 18.02 and 20.30, respectively. We have considered Massmutual Premier's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Massmutual Premier mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Massmutual Premier mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 113.1566 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.0233 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.148 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.008 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8.88 |