Movie Games Stock Forecast - Simple Regression

MOV Stock   17.10  0.86  4.79%   
The Simple Regression forecasted value of Movie Games SA on the next trading day is expected to be 16.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.03. Movie Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Movie Games price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Movie Games Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of Movie Games SA on the next trading day is expected to be 16.65 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.44, and the sum of the absolute errors of 33.03.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Movie Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Movie Games' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Movie Games Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Movie GamesMovie Games Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Movie Games Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Movie Games' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Movie Games' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.82 and 18.48, respectively. We have considered Movie Games' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
17.10
16.65
Expected Value
18.48
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Movie Games stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Movie Games stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria117.2888
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.5416
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0272
SAESum of the absolute errors33.0347
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as Movie Games SA historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Movie Games

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Movie Games SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Movie Games' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.1317.9619.79
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
14.0115.8419.76
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.6718.2718.88
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Movie Games

For every potential investor in Movie, whether a beginner or expert, Movie Games' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Movie Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Movie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Movie Games' price trends.

Movie Games Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Movie Games stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Movie Games could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Movie Games by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Movie Games SA Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Movie Games' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Movie Games' current price.

Movie Games Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Movie Games stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Movie Games shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Movie Games stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Movie Games SA entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Movie Games Risk Indicators

The analysis of Movie Games' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Movie Games' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting movie stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Pair Trading with Movie Games

One of the main advantages of trading using pair correlations is that every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if Movie Games position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Pair trading also minimizes risk from directional movements in the market. For example, if an entire industry or sector drops because of unexpected headlines, the short position in Movie Games will appreciate offsetting losses from the drop in the long position's value.

Moving together with Movie Stock

  0.84CDR CD PROJEKT SA Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr
  0.9411B 11 bit studiosPairCorr
  0.66TEN TEN SQUARE GAMESPairCorr

Moving against Movie Stock

  0.73VVD Vivid Games SAPairCorr
  0.54JSW Jastrzebska Spotka Earnings Call This WeekPairCorr
  0.5LPP LPP SAPairCorr
  0.38KGH KGHM Polska MiedzPairCorr
The ability to find closely correlated positions to Movie Games could be a great tool in your tax-loss harvesting strategies, allowing investors a quick way to find a similar-enough asset to replace Movie Games when you sell it. If you don't do this, your portfolio allocation will be skewed against your target asset allocation. So, investors can't just sell and buy back Movie Games - that would be a violation of the tax code under the "wash sale" rule, and this is why you need to find a similar enough asset and use the proceeds from selling Movie Games SA to buy it.
The correlation of Movie Games is a statistical measure of how it moves in relation to other instruments. This measure is expressed in what is known as the correlation coefficient, which ranges between -1 and +1. A perfect positive correlation (i.e., a correlation coefficient of +1) implies that as Movie Games moves, either up or down, the other security will move in the same direction. Alternatively, perfect negative correlation means that if Movie Games SA moves in either direction, the perfectly negatively correlated security will move in the opposite direction. If the correlation is 0, the equities are not correlated; they are entirely random. A correlation greater than 0.8 is generally described as strong, whereas a correlation less than 0.5 is generally considered weak.
Correlation analysis and pair trading evaluation for Movie Games can also be used as hedging techniques within a particular sector or industry or even over random equities to generate a better risk-adjusted return on your portfolios.
Pair CorrelationCorrelation Matching

Additional Tools for Movie Stock Analysis

When running Movie Games' price analysis, check to measure Movie Games' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Movie Games is operating at the current time. Most of Movie Games' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Movie Games' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Movie Games' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Movie Games to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.