Motorcar Parts Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MPAA Stock | USD 12.99 0.07 0.54% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Motorcar Parts of on the next trading day is expected to be 13.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.13. Motorcar Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Motorcar Parts stock prices and determine the direction of Motorcar Parts of's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Motorcar Parts' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Motorcar Parts' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.36 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.92 | EPS Estimate Next Year 1.755 | Wall Street Target Price 20 |
Using Motorcar Parts hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Motorcar Parts of from the perspective of Motorcar Parts response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Motorcar Parts using Motorcar Parts' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Motorcar using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Motorcar Parts' stock price.
Motorcar Parts Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Motorcar Parts' short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Motorcar. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Motorcar Parts stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 12.7928 | Short Percent 0.0681 | Short Ratio 5.11 | Shares Short Prior Month 808.8 K | 50 Day MA 12.9276 |
Motorcar Parts Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Motorcar Parts' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Motorcar. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Motorcar can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Motorcar Parts of. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Motorcar Parts Implied Volatility | 1.27 |
Motorcar Parts' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Motorcar Parts of stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Motorcar Parts' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Motorcar Parts stock will not fluctuate a lot when Motorcar Parts' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Motorcar Parts of on the next trading day is expected to be 13.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56 and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.13. Motorcar Parts after-hype prediction price | USD 12.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motorcar Parts to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Motorcar contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Motorcar Parts of will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0794% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Motorcar Parts trading at USD 12.99, that is roughly USD 0.0103 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Motorcar Parts' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Motorcar Parts of options at the current volatility level of 1.27%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Motorcar Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Motorcar Parts' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Motorcar Parts' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Motorcar Parts stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Motorcar Parts' open interest, investors have to compare it to Motorcar Parts' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Motorcar Parts is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Motorcar. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Motorcar Parts Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Motorcar price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Motorcar using various technical indicators. When you analyze Motorcar charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Motorcar Parts Cash Forecast
Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Motorcar Parts' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 1994-03-31 | Previous Quarter 12.5 M | Current Value 15.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 14.2 M |
Motorcar Parts Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Motorcar Parts of on the next trading day is expected to be 13.82 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.56, mean absolute percentage error of 0.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 34.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Motorcar Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Motorcar Parts' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Motorcar Parts Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Motorcar Parts | Motorcar Parts Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Motorcar Parts Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Motorcar Parts' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Motorcar Parts' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 9.61 and 18.02, respectively. We have considered Motorcar Parts' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Motorcar Parts stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Motorcar Parts stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.542 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5596 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0398 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 34.1349 |
Predictive Modules for Motorcar Parts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Motorcar Parts. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Motorcar Parts After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Motorcar Parts at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Motorcar Parts or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Motorcar Parts, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Motorcar Parts Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Motorcar Parts' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Motorcar Parts' historical news coverage. Motorcar Parts' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 8.76 and 17.18, respectively. We have considered Motorcar Parts' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Motorcar Parts is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Motorcar Parts is based on 3 months time horizon.
Motorcar Parts Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Motorcar Parts is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Motorcar Parts backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Motorcar Parts, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.30 | 4.21 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 9 Events / Month | 6 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
12.99 | 12.97 | 0.15 |
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Motorcar Parts Hype Timeline
Motorcar Parts is now traded for 12.99. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.04. Motorcar is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 12.97. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -0.15%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.3%. The volatility of related hype on Motorcar Parts is about 3608.57%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.95. About 86.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 0.98. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Motorcar Parts has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.55. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motorcar Parts to cross-verify your projections.Motorcar Parts Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Motorcar Parts' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Motorcar Parts' future price movements. Getting to know how Motorcar Parts' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Motorcar Parts may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HLLY | Holley Inc | (0.07) | 10 per month | 1.88 | 0.11 | 5.51 | (3.70) | 38.65 | |
| INVZ | Innoviz Technologies | (0.02) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.18) | 6.14 | (7.48) | 34.74 | |
| STRT | Strattec Security | (0.69) | 9 per month | 2.79 | 0.08 | 6.21 | (3.54) | 18.40 | |
| HYLN | Hyliion Holdings Corp | 0.06 | 15 per month | 4.73 | 0.01 | 6.19 | (7.17) | 20.27 | |
| NIU | Niu Technologies | (0.25) | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.16) | 5.50 | (6.94) | 15.96 | |
| MCFT | MCBC Holdings | 0.37 | 7 per month | 2.27 | (0.01) | 4.21 | (4.27) | 12.82 | |
| EMPD | Empery Digital | (0.27) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.14) | 5.81 | (9.18) | 20.53 | |
| HVT | Haverty Furniture Companies | 0.13 | 8 per month | 1.18 | 0.17 | 4.57 | (2.43) | 10.49 | |
| WW | WW International Common | (0.31) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 10.00 | (8.96) | 27.90 |
Other Forecasting Options for Motorcar Parts
For every potential investor in Motorcar, whether a beginner or expert, Motorcar Parts' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Motorcar Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Motorcar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Motorcar Parts' price trends.Motorcar Parts Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Motorcar Parts stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Motorcar Parts could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Motorcar Parts by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Motorcar Parts Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Motorcar Parts stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Motorcar Parts shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Motorcar Parts stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Motorcar Parts of entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Motorcar Parts Risk Indicators
The analysis of Motorcar Parts' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Motorcar Parts' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting motorcar stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.49 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.16 | |||
| Variance | 17.29 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Motorcar Parts
The number of cover stories for Motorcar Parts depends on current market conditions and Motorcar Parts' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Motorcar Parts is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Motorcar Parts' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Motorcar Parts Short Properties
Motorcar Parts' future price predictability will typically decrease when Motorcar Parts' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Motorcar Parts of often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Motorcar Parts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Motorcar Parts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 19.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 11.3 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Motorcar Parts to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Funds Screener module to find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges.
Is Automotive Parts & Equipment space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Motorcar Parts. If investors know Motorcar will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Motorcar Parts listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.14) | Earnings Share 0.12 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.064 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Motorcar Parts is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Motorcar that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Motorcar Parts' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Motorcar Parts' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Motorcar Parts' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Motorcar Parts' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Motorcar Parts' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Motorcar Parts is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Motorcar Parts' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.