Memphis Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

MPCI Stock   52.72  0.21  0.40%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Memphis Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 52.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51 and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.82. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast Memphis Pharmaceuticals' stock prices and determine the direction of Memphis Pharmaceuticals's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Memphis Pharmaceuticals' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in board of governors.
  
Memphis Pharmaceuticals simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Memphis Pharmaceuticals are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Memphis Pharmaceuticals prices get older.

Memphis Pharmaceuticals Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of December

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Memphis Pharmaceuticals on the next trading day is expected to be 52.72 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.51, mean absolute percentage error of 9.37, and the sum of the absolute errors of 90.82.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Memphis Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Memphis Pharmaceuticals' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Memphis Pharmaceuticals Stock Forecast Pattern

Memphis Pharmaceuticals Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Memphis Pharmaceuticals' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Memphis Pharmaceuticals' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 45.61 and 59.83, respectively. We have considered Memphis Pharmaceuticals' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
52.72
52.72
Expected Value
59.83
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Memphis Pharmaceuticals stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Memphis Pharmaceuticals stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria118.51
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.2707
MADMean absolute deviation1.5137
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0289
SAESum of the absolute errors90.82
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Memphis Pharmaceuticals forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Memphis Pharmaceuticals observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Memphis Pharmaceuticals

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Memphis Pharmaceuticals. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Other Forecasting Options for Memphis Pharmaceuticals

For every potential investor in Memphis, whether a beginner or expert, Memphis Pharmaceuticals' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Memphis Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Memphis. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Memphis Pharmaceuticals' price trends.

Memphis Pharmaceuticals Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Memphis Pharmaceuticals stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Memphis Pharmaceuticals could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Memphis Pharmaceuticals by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Memphis Pharmaceuticals Technical and Predictive Analytics

The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Memphis Pharmaceuticals' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Memphis Pharmaceuticals' current price.

Memphis Pharmaceuticals Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Memphis Pharmaceuticals stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Memphis Pharmaceuticals shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Memphis Pharmaceuticals stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Memphis Pharmaceuticals entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Memphis Pharmaceuticals Risk Indicators

The analysis of Memphis Pharmaceuticals' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Memphis Pharmaceuticals' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting memphis stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.