Macquarie Group Pink Sheet Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| MQBKY Stock | USD 151.14 4.61 3.15% |
Macquarie Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Macquarie Group's pink sheet price is slightly above 65. This indicates that the pink sheet is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Macquarie, making its price go up or down. Momentum 65
Buy Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Macquarie Group hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Macquarie Group Ltd from the perspective of Macquarie Group response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macquarie Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 151.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.47 and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.13. Macquarie Group after-hype prediction price | USD 137.97 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Macquarie |
Macquarie Group Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Macquarie price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Macquarie using various technical indicators. When you analyze Macquarie charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Macquarie Group Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Macquarie Group Ltd on the next trading day is expected to be 151.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.47, mean absolute percentage error of 3.57, and the sum of the absolute errors of 88.13.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Macquarie Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Macquarie Group's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Macquarie Group Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Macquarie Group | Macquarie Group Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Macquarie Group Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Macquarie Group's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Macquarie Group's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 149.80 and 152.48, respectively. We have considered Macquarie Group's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Macquarie Group pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Macquarie Group pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.5449 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.1112 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.4688 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0109 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 88.13 |
Predictive Modules for Macquarie Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Macquarie Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Macquarie Group After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Macquarie Group at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Macquarie Group or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Macquarie Group, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Macquarie Group Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Macquarie Group's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Macquarie Group's historical news coverage. Macquarie Group's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 136.63 and 139.31, respectively. We have considered Macquarie Group's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Macquarie Group is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Macquarie Group is based on 3 months time horizon.
Macquarie Group Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Macquarie Group is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Macquarie Group backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Macquarie Group, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 1.34 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
151.14 | 137.97 | 0.00 |
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Macquarie Group Hype Timeline
Macquarie Group is now traded for 151.14. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Macquarie is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on Macquarie Group is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 151.14. The book value of the company was now reported as 84.87. The company recorded earning per share (EPS) of 8.78. Macquarie Group last dividend was issued on the 4th of November 2022. The entity had 9438:10000 split on the 23rd of December 2013. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Macquarie Group to cross-verify your projections.Macquarie Group Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Macquarie Group's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Macquarie Group's future price movements. Getting to know how Macquarie Group's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Macquarie Group may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CIIHF | CITIC Securities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 15.89 | |
| CIIHY | CITIC Securities Co | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 1.20 | (4.13) | 12.33 | |
| GUOSF | Guotai Junan Securities | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| SCRYY | SCOR PK | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.06 | (3.94) | 10.26 | |
| PBCRF | PT Bank Central | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 2.13 | 0.00 | 28.86 | |
| SSREY | Swiss Re | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.20) | 1.75 | (2.12) | 8.68 | |
| SSREF | Swiss Re AG | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 2.38 | (3.78) | 7.72 | |
| CRARY | Credit Agricole SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.13 | 0.14 | 2.03 | (1.26) | 5.00 | |
| PPCCY | PICC Property and | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 4.88 | (5.49) | 17.15 | |
| SMPNY | Sompo Holdings ADR | 0.00 | 0 per month | 1.14 | 0.12 | 2.77 | (1.85) | 8.03 |
Other Forecasting Options for Macquarie Group
For every potential investor in Macquarie, whether a beginner or expert, Macquarie Group's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Macquarie Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Macquarie. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Macquarie Group's price trends.Macquarie Group Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Macquarie Group pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Macquarie Group could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Macquarie Group by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Macquarie Group Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Macquarie Group pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Macquarie Group shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Macquarie Group pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Macquarie Group Ltd entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Macquarie Group Risk Indicators
The analysis of Macquarie Group's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Macquarie Group's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting macquarie pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.04 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 1.32 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.34 | |||
| Variance | 1.8 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.89 | |||
| Semi Variance | 1.74 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (1.10) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Macquarie Group
The number of cover stories for Macquarie Group depends on current market conditions and Macquarie Group's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Macquarie Group is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Macquarie Group's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Macquarie Group Short Properties
Macquarie Group's future price predictability will typically decrease when Macquarie Group's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Macquarie Group Ltd often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Macquarie Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Macquarie Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 382.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 103.6 B |
Additional Tools for Macquarie Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Macquarie Group's price analysis, check to measure Macquarie Group's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Macquarie Group is operating at the current time. Most of Macquarie Group's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Macquarie Group's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Macquarie Group's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Macquarie Group to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.