Marathon Oil Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

MRO Stock  MXN 564.00  0.00  0.00%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 557.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.84 and the sum of the absolute errors of 234.28. Marathon Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Marathon Oil is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Marathon Oil value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Marathon Oil Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 13th of December 2024

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Marathon Oil on the next trading day is expected to be 557.62 with a mean absolute deviation of 3.84, mean absolute percentage error of 28.69, and the sum of the absolute errors of 234.28.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Marathon Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Marathon Oil's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Marathon Oil Stock Forecast Pattern

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Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Marathon Oil stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Marathon Oil stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.4671
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation3.8406
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0072
SAESum of the absolute errors234.2787
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Marathon Oil. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Marathon Oil. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Marathon Oil

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Marathon Oil. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
563.08564.00564.92
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
551.56552.48620.40
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
516.39543.90571.41
Details

Marathon Oil Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Marathon Oil stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Marathon Oil could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Marathon Oil by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Marathon Oil Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Marathon Oil stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Marathon Oil shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Marathon Oil stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Marathon Oil entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Marathon Oil Risk Indicators

The analysis of Marathon Oil's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Marathon Oil's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting marathon stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Marathon Stock Analysis

When running Marathon Oil's price analysis, check to measure Marathon Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Marathon Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Marathon Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Marathon Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Marathon Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Marathon Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.