GraniteShares ETF Forward View - Simple Moving Average
| MSFL ETF | 19.76 0.77 4.05% |
GraniteShares's Simple Moving Average forecast is computed from observed closing prices over the selected horizon. The accuracy statistics below distinguish a well-fitted model from one that is smoothing over meaningful price movement. The Simple Moving Average model projects GraniteShares at 19.38 for the next trading day, below the most recent closing price. The Simple Moving Average output reflects statistical model results and is provided for reference purposes.
Simple Moving Average Price Forecast For the 25th of April
Over a 90-day horizon, the Simple Moving Average model forecasts GraniteShares at 19.38 for the next trading day, with a mean absolute deviation of 0.62 , mean absolute percentage error of 0.03 , and sum of absolute errors of 36.78 .This represents a tight forecast with good short-term tracking of GraniteShares' price movement. This output is intended for short-term analytical reference.
ETF Forecast Pattern
| Backtest GraniteShares | GraniteShares Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Forecasted Value
The next-day forecast range for GraniteShares defines statistically derived downside and upside boundaries based on model performance. The current forecast range spans downside near 15.04 and upside near 23.71. The wide range indicates elevated uncertainty in short-term projections.
Model Predictive Factors
The table below summarizes the Simple Moving Average model's error metrics for GraniteShares ETF. Lower MAD and MAPE values indicate tighter forecast accuracy. AIC measures relative model quality — lower values indicate less information loss and a better-fitting model. A large Bias suggests systematic over- or under-prediction.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.0904 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0914 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6234 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0349 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 36.78 |
Other Forecasting Options for GraniteShares
Analyzing GraniteShares' price movement through moving averages at different time horizons reveals whether short-term momentum aligns with the longer-term trend. Touches of the upper or lower band in GraniteShares' chart signal overbought or oversold conditions.GraniteShares Related Equities
These firms work in a similar space as GraniteShares within the Trading--Leveraged Equity space and serve as useful points for comparison. Checking cash flow across this peer set helps gauge GraniteShares' relative financial strength.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
GraniteShares Market Strength Events
For investors tracking GraniteShares 2x Long, market strength indicators offer quantitative evaluation of ETF behavior. When Rate of Change diverges from price direction, it often signals weakening momentum before a visible reversal in GraniteShares.
GraniteShares Risk Indicators
Analyzing GraniteShares' basic risk indicators provides a structured view of the risk-return trade-off for graniteshares etf. Expected shortfall estimates the average loss in the worst-case tail scenarios, going beyond what standard deviation alone captures for GraniteShares.
| Mean Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.34 | |||
| Variance | 18.79 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
More Resources for GraniteShares ETF Analysis
Analysis of GraniteShares 2x Long often begins with its portfolio holdings and historical return patterns. Fund metrics provide structure to performance, cost, and holdings analysis.Historical Fundamental Analysis of GraniteShares places GraniteShares' projections alongside historical fundamentals. The relationship between past fundamentals and projections varies by ETF and industry. GraniteShares information shown here supports broader portfolio research rather than acting as a stand-alone signal. The supplemental views below clarify how GraniteShares complements or overlaps with existing portfolio holdings. You can also try the Fundamentals Comparison module to compare fundamentals across multiple equities to find investing opportunities.
GraniteShares' market price and NAV each provide useful but distinct information about the fund. These perspectives help frame the broad analytical context for the fund.
Market price and NAV for GraniteShares can move independently over short periods. Holdings turnover, expense ratio, and fund flow patterns can inform the evaluation.