Small Pany Mutual Fund Forecast - 4 Period Moving Average

MSSMX Fund  USD 10.80  0.15  1.37%   
The 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Small Pany Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 10.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.00. Small Mutual Fund Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A four-period moving average forecast model for Small Pany Growth is based on an artificially constructed daily price series in which the value for a given day is replaced by the mean of that value and the values for four preceding and succeeding time periods. This model is best suited to forecast equities with high volatility.

Small Pany 4 Period Moving Average Price Forecast For the 27th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the 4 Period Moving Average forecasted value of Small Pany Growth on the next trading day is expected to be 10.78 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.21, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.00.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Small Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Small Pany's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Small Pany Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

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Small Pany Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Small Pany's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Small Pany's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 8.93 and 12.63, respectively. We have considered Small Pany's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
10.80
10.78
Expected Value
12.63
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the 4 Period Moving Average forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Small Pany mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Small Pany mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria108.2783
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.1516
MADMean absolute deviation0.2105
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0233
SAESum of the absolute errors12.0
The four period moving average method has an advantage over other forecasting models in that it does smooth out peaks and troughs in a set of daily price observations of Small Pany. However, it also has several disadvantages. In particular this model does not produce an actual prediction equation for Small Pany Growth and therefore, it cannot be a useful forecasting tool for medium or long range price predictions

Predictive Modules for Small Pany

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Small Pany Growth. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
8.9510.8012.65
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
9.2211.0712.92
Details

Other Forecasting Options for Small Pany

For every potential investor in Small, whether a beginner or expert, Small Pany's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Small Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Small. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Small Pany's price trends.

Small Pany Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Small Pany mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Small Pany could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Small Pany by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Small Pany Growth Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Small Pany's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Small Pany's current price.

Small Pany Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Small Pany mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Small Pany shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Small Pany mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Small Pany Growth entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Small Pany Risk Indicators

The analysis of Small Pany's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Small Pany's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting small mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Small Mutual Fund

Small Pany financial ratios help investors to determine whether Small Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Small with respect to the benefits of owning Small Pany security.
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