Strategy Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression
| MSTR Stock | MXN 2,818 37.89 1.33% |
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Strategy on the next trading day is expected to be 2,895 with a mean absolute deviation of 140.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,723. Strategy Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the value of RSI of Strategy's share price is approaching 36. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Strategy, making its price go up or down. Momentum 36
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Strategy hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Strategy from the perspective of Strategy response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Strategy on the next trading day is expected to be 2,895 with a mean absolute deviation of 140.69 and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,723. Strategy after-hype prediction price | MXN 2818.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Strategy |
Strategy Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Strategy price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Strategy using various technical indicators. When you analyze Strategy charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Strategy Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 24th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Strategy on the next trading day is expected to be 2,895 with a mean absolute deviation of 140.69, mean absolute percentage error of 29,774, and the sum of the absolute errors of 8,723.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Strategy Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Strategy's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Strategy Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Strategy | Strategy Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Strategy Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Strategy's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Strategy's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 2,891 and 2,899, respectively. We have considered Strategy's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Strategy stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Strategy stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 130.2498 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 140.6945 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0414 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 8723.058 |
Predictive Modules for Strategy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Strategy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Strategy After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Strategy at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Strategy or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Strategy, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Strategy Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Strategy's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Strategy's historical news coverage. Strategy's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 2,814 and 2,822, respectively. We have considered Strategy's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Strategy is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Strategy is based on 3 months time horizon.
Strategy Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Strategy is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Strategy backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Strategy, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.01 | 4.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0 Events / Month | 0 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
2,818 | 2,818 | 0.00 |
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Strategy Hype Timeline
Strategy is now traded for 2,818on Mexican Exchange of Mexico. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Strategy is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -1.01%. %. The volatility of related hype on Strategy is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 2,818. About 91.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company recorded a loss per share of 248.64. Strategy had not issued any dividends in recent years. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next anticipated press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Strategy to cross-verify your projections.Strategy Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Strategy's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Strategy's future price movements. Getting to know how Strategy's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Strategy may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| U | Unity Software | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.71 | 0.05 | 6.55 | (5.71) | 30.29 | |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 3.39 | (2.90) | 7.85 | |
| LYGN | Lloyds Banking Group | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 14.63 | |
| SPORTS | Grupo Sports World | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.45 | 0.07 | 4.05 | (3.94) | 16.62 | |
| STLD | Steel Dynamics | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.25 | 0.16 | 3.58 | (1.22) | 7.71 | |
| COST | Costco Wholesale | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.45 | (1.76) | 5.76 | |
| CTSH | Cognizant Technology Solutions | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 10.64 |
Other Forecasting Options for Strategy
For every potential investor in Strategy, whether a beginner or expert, Strategy's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Strategy Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Strategy. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Strategy's price trends.Strategy Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Strategy stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Strategy could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Strategy by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Strategy Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Strategy stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Strategy shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Strategy stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Strategy entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 17.26 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.76) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 2825.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 2822.72 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.0508 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (25.79) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (37.89) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 36.69 |
Strategy Risk Indicators
The analysis of Strategy's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Strategy's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting strategy stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.29 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.01 | |||
| Variance | 16.05 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Strategy
The number of cover stories for Strategy depends on current market conditions and Strategy's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Strategy is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Strategy's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
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Strategy Short Properties
Strategy's future price predictability will typically decrease when Strategy's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Strategy often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Strategy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Strategy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Float Shares | 7.84M | |
| Average Daily Volume Last 10 Day | 148 | |
| Average Daily Volume In Three Month | 148 |
Additional Tools for Strategy Stock Analysis
When running Strategy's price analysis, check to measure Strategy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Strategy is operating at the current time. Most of Strategy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Strategy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Strategy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Strategy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.