MTN GHANA Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MTNGH Stock | 2.36 0.01 0.43% |
MTN |
MTN GHANA Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of MTN GHANA LTD on the next trading day is expected to be 2.30 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.02, mean absolute percentage error of 0.0009, and the sum of the absolute errors of 1.30.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict MTN Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that MTN GHANA's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
MTN GHANA Stock Forecast Pattern
MTN GHANA Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting MTN GHANA's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. MTN GHANA's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 1.14 and 3.46, respectively. We have considered MTN GHANA's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of MTN GHANA stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent MTN GHANA stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 111.1287 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.0214 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0096 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 1.3027 |
Predictive Modules for MTN GHANA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MTN GHANA LTD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as MTN GHANA. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against MTN GHANA's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, MTN GHANA's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in MTN GHANA LTD.Other Forecasting Options for MTN GHANA
For every potential investor in MTN, whether a beginner or expert, MTN GHANA's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. MTN Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in MTN. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying MTN GHANA's price trends.MTN GHANA Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with MTN GHANA stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of MTN GHANA could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing MTN GHANA by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
MTN GHANA LTD Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of MTN GHANA's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of MTN GHANA's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
MTN GHANA Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how MTN GHANA stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading MTN GHANA shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying MTN GHANA stock market strength indicators, traders can identify MTN GHANA LTD entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
MTN GHANA Risk Indicators
The analysis of MTN GHANA's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in MTN GHANA's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mtn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.5211 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.4473 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.15 | |||
| Variance | 1.33 | |||
| Downside Variance | 1.96 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.2001 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.02) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.