Micron Technology Stock Forecast - Double Exponential Smoothing
| MU Stock | USD 435.28 25.04 6.10% |
Micron Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Micron Technology's share price is above 70 at this time. This indicates that the stock is becoming overbought or overvalued. The idea behind Relative Strength Index (RSI) is that it helps to track how fast people are buying or selling Micron, making its price go up or down. Momentum 74
Buy Stretched
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.754 | EPS Estimate Current Year 33.3059 | EPS Estimate Next Year 42.7904 | Wall Street Target Price 358.85 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 3.9397 |
Using Micron Technology hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Micron Technology from the perspective of Micron Technology response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Micron Technology using Micron Technology's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Micron using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Micron Technology's stock price.
Micron Technology Short Interest
An investor who is long Micron Technology may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Micron Technology and may potentially protect profits, hedge Micron Technology with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 170.9333 | Short Percent 0.0246 | Short Ratio 0.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 30 M | 50 Day MA 284.0304 |
Micron Relative Strength Index
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 443.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 625.84.Micron Technology Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Micron Technology's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Micron. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Micron can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Micron Technology. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Micron Technology's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Micron Technology.
Micron Technology Implied Volatility | 0.85 |
Micron Technology's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Micron Technology stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Micron Technology's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Micron Technology stock will not fluctuate a lot when Micron Technology's options are near their expiration.
The Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 443.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 625.84. Micron Technology after-hype prediction price | USD 454.63 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections. Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Micron contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Micron Technology will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0531% per day over the life of the 2026-04-17 option contract. With Micron Technology trading at USD 435.28, that is roughly USD 0.23 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Micron Technology's daily price movement you should consider acquiring Micron Technology options at the current volatility level of 0.85%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-04-17 Micron Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Micron Technology's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Micron Technology's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Micron Technology stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Micron Technology's open interest, investors have to compare it to Micron Technology's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Micron Technology is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Micron. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Micron Technology Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Micron price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Micron using various technical indicators. When you analyze Micron charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Micron Technology Double Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 30th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Micron Technology on the next trading day is expected to be 443.24 with a mean absolute deviation of 10.61, mean absolute percentage error of 165.59, and the sum of the absolute errors of 625.84.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Micron Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Micron Technology's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Micron Technology Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Micron Technology | Micron Technology Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Micron Technology Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Micron Technology's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Micron Technology's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 438.77 and 447.71, respectively. We have considered Micron Technology's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Double Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Micron Technology stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Micron Technology stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.6971 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 10.6075 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0386 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 625.8418 |
Predictive Modules for Micron Technology
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Micron Technology. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Micron Technology's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Micron Technology After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Micron Technology at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Micron Technology or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Micron Technology, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Micron Technology Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Micron Technology's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Micron Technology's historical news coverage. Micron Technology's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 391.75 and 459.10, respectively. We have considered Micron Technology's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Micron Technology is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Micron Technology is based on 3 months time horizon.
Micron Technology Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Micron Technology is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Micron Technology backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Micron Technology, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
1.19 | 4.47 | 19.35 | 2.00 | 8 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
435.28 | 454.63 | 4.45 |
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Micron Technology Hype Timeline
As of January 29, 2026 Micron Technology is listed for 435.28. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 19.35, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -2.0. Micron is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 454.63 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 27.49%. The price appreciation on the next news is projected to be 4.45%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 1.19%. The volatility of related hype on Micron Technology is about 266.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 433.28. Micron Technology reports about 9.33 B in cash with 17.52 B of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.58. Allowing for the 90-day total investment horizon the next anticipated press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Micron Technology to cross-verify your projections.Micron Technology Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Micron Technology's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Micron Technology's future price movements. Getting to know how Micron Technology's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Micron Technology may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| LRCX | Lam Research Corp | (14.86) | 7 per month | 2.43 | 0.22 | 6.27 | (4.85) | 12.15 | |
| AMAT | Applied Materials | 5.76 | 8 per month | 2.04 | 0.21 | 5.00 | (3.61) | 10.80 | |
| CRM | Salesforce | 1.43 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 2.94 | (3.10) | 12.37 | |
| QCOM | Qualcomm Incorporated | 0.04 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 3.48 | (3.93) | 15.88 | |
| IBM | International Business Machines | (4.75) | 7 per month | 1.78 | (0.0007) | 2.54 | (2.89) | 12.56 | |
| CSCO | Cisco Systems | (0.38) | 8 per month | 1.12 | 0.08 | 2.21 | (2.00) | 8.38 | |
| TXN | Texas Instruments Incorporated | 2.96 | 8 per month | 1.15 | 0.13 | 4.19 | (2.39) | 11.75 | |
| KLAC | KLA Tencor | (6.85) | 7 per month | 2.14 | 0.18 | 4.89 | (4.19) | 12.91 | |
| SAP | SAP SE ADR | 0.75 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.21) | 2.09 | (2.86) | 6.32 | |
| ARM | Arm Holdings plc | (0.88) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 4.63 | (4.71) | 10.33 |
Other Forecasting Options for Micron Technology
For every potential investor in Micron, whether a beginner or expert, Micron Technology's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Micron Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Micron. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Micron Technology's price trends.Micron Technology Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Micron Technology stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Micron Technology could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Micron Technology by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Micron Technology Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Micron Technology stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Micron Technology shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Micron Technology stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Micron Technology entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Micron Technology Risk Indicators
The analysis of Micron Technology's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Micron Technology's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting micron stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.47 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 2.95 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.35 | |||
| Variance | 18.92 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.21 | |||
| Semi Variance | 8.72 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.17) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Micron Technology
The number of cover stories for Micron Technology depends on current market conditions and Micron Technology's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Micron Technology is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Micron Technology's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Micron Technology Short Properties
Micron Technology's future price predictability will typically decrease when Micron Technology's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Micron Technology often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Micron Technology's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Micron Technology's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 10.3 B |
Additional Tools for Micron Stock Analysis
When running Micron Technology's price analysis, check to measure Micron Technology's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Micron Technology is operating at the current time. Most of Micron Technology's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Micron Technology's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Micron Technology's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Micron Technology to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.