Muenchener Rueckver Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MURGY Stock | USD 11.99 0.05 0.42% |
Muenchener Pink Sheet outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Muenchener Rueckver's share price is approaching 38. This indicates that the pink sheet is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Muenchener Rueckver, making its price go up or down. Momentum 38
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Using Muenchener Rueckver hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Muenchener Rueckver Ges from the perspective of Muenchener Rueckver response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Muenchener Rueckver Ges on the next trading day is expected to be 12.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.52. Muenchener Rueckver after-hype prediction price | USD 11.99 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as pink sheet price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Muenchener |
Muenchener Rueckver Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Muenchener price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Muenchener using various technical indicators. When you analyze Muenchener charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Muenchener Rueckver Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 27th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Muenchener Rueckver Ges on the next trading day is expected to be 12.17 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.52.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Muenchener Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Muenchener Rueckver's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Muenchener Rueckver Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Muenchener Rueckver | Muenchener Rueckver Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Muenchener Rueckver Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Muenchener Rueckver's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Muenchener Rueckver's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 11.03 and 13.31, respectively. We have considered Muenchener Rueckver's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Muenchener Rueckver pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Muenchener Rueckver pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 114.713 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.156 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0123 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.5184 |
Predictive Modules for Muenchener Rueckver
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Muenchener Rueckver Ges. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Muenchener Rueckver After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Muenchener Rueckver at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Muenchener Rueckver or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Pink Sheet prices, such as prices of Muenchener Rueckver, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Muenchener Rueckver Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Muenchener Rueckver's pink sheet value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Muenchener Rueckver's historical news coverage. Muenchener Rueckver's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 10.85 and 13.13, respectively. We have considered Muenchener Rueckver's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Muenchener Rueckver is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Muenchener Rueckver Ges is based on 3 months time horizon.
Muenchener Rueckver Pink Sheet Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Muenchener Rueckver is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Muenchener Rueckver backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Pink Sheet price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Muenchener Rueckver, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.10 | 1.14 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0 Events / Month | 3 Events / Month | Uncertain |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
11.99 | 11.99 | 0.00 |
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Muenchener Rueckver Hype Timeline
Muenchener Rueckver Ges is now traded for 11.99. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.06. Muenchener is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.1%. %. The volatility of related hype on Muenchener Rueckver is about 182.99%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 12.05. The book value of the company was now reported as 15.33. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.19. Muenchener Rueckver Ges last dividend was issued on the 29th of April 2022. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Muenchener Rueckver to cross-verify your projections.Muenchener Rueckver Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Muenchener Rueckver's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Muenchener Rueckver's future price movements. Getting to know how Muenchener Rueckver's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Muenchener Rueckver may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| MPFRF | Mapfre SA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | |
| UFGSY | Unipol Gruppo SpA | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 2.77 | (1.45) | 10.34 | |
| PZAKY | Powszechny Zaklad Ubezpieczen | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | 0.09 | 10.06 | (1.69) | 31.70 | |
| BKRIY | Bank of Ireland | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.89 | 0.23 | 2.50 | (1.67) | 6.60 | |
| SNMYF | Suncorp Group Limited | 2.34 | 2 per month | 0.00 | (0.29) | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.87 | |
| BKRIF | Bank of Ireland | 0.13 | 26 per month | 2.10 | 0.11 | 3.40 | (2.95) | 13.74 | |
| SNMCY | Suncorp Group Ltd | 2.00 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 7.60 | (9.31) | 21.88 | |
| MDIBY | Mediobanca Banca di | 2.34 | 2 per month | 1.53 | 0.04 | 3.02 | (2.41) | 9.57 | |
| NNGRY | NN Group NV | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.83 | 0.09 | 1.64 | (1.44) | 5.20 | |
| NNGPF | NN Group NV | (0.58) | 9 per month | 0.58 | 0.07 | 2.24 | (1.77) | 7.88 |
Other Forecasting Options for Muenchener Rueckver
For every potential investor in Muenchener, whether a beginner or expert, Muenchener Rueckver's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Muenchener Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Muenchener. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Muenchener Rueckver's price trends.Muenchener Rueckver Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Muenchener Rueckver pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Muenchener Rueckver could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Muenchener Rueckver by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Muenchener Rueckver Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Muenchener Rueckver pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Muenchener Rueckver shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Muenchener Rueckver pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Muenchener Rueckver Ges entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Muenchener Rueckver Risk Indicators
The analysis of Muenchener Rueckver's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Muenchener Rueckver's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting muenchener pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.8234 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 1.11 | |||
| Variance | 1.23 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Muenchener Rueckver
The number of cover stories for Muenchener Rueckver depends on current market conditions and Muenchener Rueckver's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Muenchener Rueckver is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Muenchener Rueckver's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Muenchener Rueckver Short Properties
Muenchener Rueckver's future price predictability will typically decrease when Muenchener Rueckver's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Muenchener Rueckver Ges often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Muenchener Rueckver's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Muenchener Rueckver's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.4 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 171.2 B |
Additional Tools for Muenchener Pink Sheet Analysis
When running Muenchener Rueckver's price analysis, check to measure Muenchener Rueckver's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Muenchener Rueckver is operating at the current time. Most of Muenchener Rueckver's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Muenchener Rueckver's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Muenchener Rueckver's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Muenchener Rueckver to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.