Mfs Mid Mutual Fund Forecast - Polynomial Regression

MVCKX Fund  USD 32.52  0.21  0.64%   
Mfs Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The relative strength index (RSI) of Mfs Mid's mutual fund price is slightly above 62. This indicates that the mutual fund is rather overbought by investors at this time. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling Mfs, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 62

 Buy Extended

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Mfs Mid's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Mfs Mid Cap, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Mfs Mid hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Mfs Mid Cap from the perspective of Mfs Mid response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mfs Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 32.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39 and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.58.

Mfs Mid after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 32.52  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mfs Mid to cross-verify your projections.

Mfs Mid Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Mfs price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Mfs using various technical indicators. When you analyze Mfs charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Mfs Mid polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for Mfs Mid Cap as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

Mfs Mid Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 27th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of Mfs Mid Cap on the next trading day is expected to be 32.12 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.39, mean absolute percentage error of 0.26, and the sum of the absolute errors of 23.58.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Mfs Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Mfs Mid's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Mfs Mid Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Mfs Mid  Mfs Mid Price Prediction  Buy or Sell Advice  

Mfs Mid Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Mfs Mid's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Mfs Mid's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 30.91 and 33.32, respectively. We have considered Mfs Mid's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
32.52
32.12
Expected Value
33.32
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Mfs Mid mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Mfs Mid mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria116.7746
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.3865
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0127
SAESum of the absolute errors23.575
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the Mfs Mid historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for Mfs Mid

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mfs Mid Cap. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
31.3132.5233.73
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
30.7331.9433.15
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
31.1532.0833.00
Details

Mfs Mid After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Mfs Mid at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Mfs Mid or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Mfs Mid, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Mfs Mid Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Mfs Mid's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Mfs Mid's historical news coverage. Mfs Mid's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 31.31 and 33.73, respectively. We have considered Mfs Mid's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
32.52
32.52
After-hype Price
33.73
Upside
Mfs Mid is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Mfs Mid Cap is based on 3 months time horizon.

Mfs Mid Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Mfs Mid is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Mfs Mid backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Mfs Mid, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.21 
1.21
 0.00  
  4.57 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
32.52
32.52
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Mfs Mid Hype Timeline

Mfs Mid Cap is now traded for 32.52. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -4.57. Mfs is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.21%. %. The volatility of related hype on Mfs Mid is about 5.56%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 27.95. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.91. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Mfs Mid Cap last dividend was issued on the 12th of December 1970. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Mfs Mid to cross-verify your projections.

Mfs Mid Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Mfs Mid's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Mfs Mid's future price movements. Getting to know how Mfs Mid's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Mfs Mid may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
MVCAXMfs Mid Cap 0.14 1 per month 0.54  0.1  1.75 (1.26) 8.94 
PRVIXT Rowe Price(7.39)2 per month 0.51  0.13  2.22 (1.33) 14.32 
SFLNXSchwab Fundamental Large 0.00 0 per month 0.48  0.04  1.29 (1.03) 3.09 
TLYIXTiaa Cref Lifecycle Index 0.19 1 per month 0.42 (0.03) 0.80 (0.81) 2.68 
HILRXThe Hartford International 0.44 1 per month 0.28  0.18  1.27 (0.91) 4.92 
HILDXThe Hartford International 0.00 0 per month 0.26  0.18  1.27 (0.87) 4.99 
TLZIXTiaa Cref Lifecycle Index 0.00 0 per month 0.47 (0.01) 0.91 (1.00) 3.29 
FZAHXFidelity Advisor Growth(191.83)2 per month 1.30 (0.05) 1.66 (2.29) 5.29 
VSCGXVanguard Lifestrategy Servative(0.01)1 per month 0.26 (0.15) 0.56 (0.51) 1.51 
MQGIXMfs International Growth(19.26)7 per month 0.45  0.04  1.16 (0.98) 4.00 

Other Forecasting Options for Mfs Mid

For every potential investor in Mfs, whether a beginner or expert, Mfs Mid's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Mfs Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Mfs. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Mfs Mid's price trends.

Mfs Mid Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Mfs Mid mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Mfs Mid could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Mfs Mid by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Mfs Mid Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Mfs Mid mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Mfs Mid shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Mfs Mid mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify Mfs Mid Cap entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Mfs Mid Risk Indicators

The analysis of Mfs Mid's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Mfs Mid's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting mfs mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Mfs Mid

The number of cover stories for Mfs Mid depends on current market conditions and Mfs Mid's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Mfs Mid is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Mfs Mid's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Mfs Mutual Fund

Mfs Mid financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mfs Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mfs with respect to the benefits of owning Mfs Mid security.
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