Microvast Holdings Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| MVST Stock | USD 3.01 0.03 0.99% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Microvast Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 2.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.03. Microvast Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Microvast Holdings' share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.03 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.17 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.2 | Wall Street Target Price 6.5 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.05 |
Using Microvast Holdings hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Microvast Holdings from the perspective of Microvast Holdings response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Microvast Holdings using Microvast Holdings' stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Microvast using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Microvast Holdings' stock price.
Microvast Holdings Short Interest
An investor who is long Microvast Holdings may also wish to track short interest. As short interest increases, investors should be becoming more worried about Microvast Holdings and may potentially protect profits, hedge Microvast Holdings with its derivative instruments, or be ready for some potential downside.
200 Day MA 3.4276 | Short Percent 0.1475 | Short Ratio 6.88 | Shares Short Prior Month 29.9 M | 50 Day MA 3.3173 |
Microvast Holdings Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Microvast Holdings' public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Microvast. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Microvast can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Microvast Holdings. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Microvast Holdings Implied Volatility | 1.38 |
Microvast Holdings' implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Microvast Holdings stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Microvast Holdings' implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Microvast Holdings stock will not fluctuate a lot when Microvast Holdings' options are near their expiration.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Microvast Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 2.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20 and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.03. Microvast Holdings after-hype prediction price | USD 2.94 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Prediction based on Rule 16 of the current Microvast contract
Based on the Rule 16, the options market is currently suggesting that Microvast Holdings will have an average daily up or down price movement of about 0.0862% per day over the life of the 2026-03-20 option contract. With Microvast Holdings trading at USD 3.01, that is roughly USD 0.002596 . If you think that the market is fully incorporating Microvast Holdings' daily price movement you should consider acquiring Microvast Holdings options at the current volatility level of 1.38%. But if you have an opposite viewpoint you should avoid it and even consider selling them.
Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Microvast Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Microvast Holdings' spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Microvast Holdings' options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Microvast Holdings stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Microvast Holdings' open interest, investors have to compare it to Microvast Holdings' spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Microvast Holdings is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Microvast. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Microvast Holdings Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Microvast price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Microvast using various technical indicators. When you analyze Microvast charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Microvast Holdings' financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2018-12-31 | Previous Quarter 138.8 M | Current Value 90.7 M | Quarterly Volatility 161.3 M |
Microvast Holdings Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Microvast Holdings on the next trading day is expected to be 2.97 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.20, mean absolute percentage error of 0.06, and the sum of the absolute errors of 12.03.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Microvast Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Microvast Holdings' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Microvast Holdings Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Microvast Holdings | Microvast Holdings Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Microvast Holdings Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Microvast Holdings' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Microvast Holdings' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.03 and 7.42, respectively. We have considered Microvast Holdings' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Microvast Holdings stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Microvast Holdings stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.257 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1972 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0554 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 12.0303 |
Predictive Modules for Microvast Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Microvast Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Microvast Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Microvast Holdings After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Microvast Holdings at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Microvast Holdings or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Microvast Holdings, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Microvast Holdings Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Microvast Holdings' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Microvast Holdings' historical news coverage. Microvast Holdings' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 0.15 and 7.42, respectively. We have considered Microvast Holdings' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Microvast Holdings is unstable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Microvast Holdings is based on 3 months time horizon.
Microvast Holdings Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Microvast Holdings is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Microvast Holdings backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Microvast Holdings, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.83 | 4.44 | 0.07 | 0.28 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
3.01 | 2.94 | 2.33 |
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Microvast Holdings Hype Timeline
Microvast Holdings is now traded for 3.01. The entity has historical hype elasticity of -0.07, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.28. Microvast is projected to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 2.94. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -2.33%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.83%. The volatility of related hype on Microvast Holdings is about 1336.45%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 3.29. About 39.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The book value of Microvast Holdings was now reported as 1.11. The company recorded a loss per share of 0.39. Microvast Holdings had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next projected press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Microvast Holdings to cross-verify your projections.Microvast Holdings Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Microvast Holdings' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Microvast Holdings' future price movements. Getting to know how Microvast Holdings' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Microvast Holdings may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| AMPX | Amprius Technologies | 1.46 | 23 per month | 0.00 | (0.02) | 8.37 | (7.88) | 29.24 | |
| VOYG | Voyager Technologies | 1.33 | 8 per month | 4.62 | 0.03 | 7.91 | (7.09) | 19.57 | |
| ENR | Energizer Holdings | (0.27) | 14 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 4.63 | (4.01) | 22.15 | |
| SLDP | Solid Power | (0.20) | 6 per month | 5.84 | (0) | 9.41 | (8.23) | 72.11 | |
| PBI | Pitney Bowes | 0.13 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 2.65 | (2.96) | 13.11 | |
| HNI | HNI Corp | (0.05) | 1 per month | 1.52 | 0.03 | 2.32 | (1.73) | 8.43 | |
| ENOV | Enovis Corp | 1.50 | 40 per month | 0.00 | (0.17) | 4.13 | (5.64) | 17.04 | |
| CDRE | Cadre Holdings | (0.86) | 7 per month | 1.67 | 0.01 | 4.08 | (2.99) | 10.53 | |
| ENVX | Enovix Corp | (0.05) | 1 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 7.93 | (8.56) | 27.55 |
Other Forecasting Options for Microvast Holdings
For every potential investor in Microvast, whether a beginner or expert, Microvast Holdings' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Microvast Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Microvast. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Microvast Holdings' price trends.Microvast Holdings Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Microvast Holdings stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Microvast Holdings could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Microvast Holdings by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Microvast Holdings Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Microvast Holdings stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Microvast Holdings shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Microvast Holdings stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Microvast Holdings entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Microvast Holdings Risk Indicators
The analysis of Microvast Holdings' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Microvast Holdings' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting microvast stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.44 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 4.5 | |||
| Variance | 20.22 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Microvast Holdings
The number of cover stories for Microvast Holdings depends on current market conditions and Microvast Holdings' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Microvast Holdings is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Microvast Holdings' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Microvast Holdings Short Properties
Microvast Holdings' future price predictability will typically decrease when Microvast Holdings' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Microvast Holdings often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Microvast Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Microvast Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 318.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 73 M |
Additional Tools for Microvast Stock Analysis
When running Microvast Holdings' price analysis, check to measure Microvast Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Microvast Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of Microvast Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Microvast Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Microvast Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Microvast Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.