Magyar Telekom Pink Sheet Forecast - Naive Prediction

MYTAY Stock  USD 15.15  0.49  3.13%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magyar Telekom Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 14.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19 and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.66. Magyar Pink Sheet Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
  
A naive forecasting model for Magyar Telekom is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Magyar Telekom Plc value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Magyar Telekom Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 24th of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Magyar Telekom Plc on the next trading day is expected to be 14.52 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.19, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.66.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Magyar Pink Sheet prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Magyar Telekom's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Magyar Telekom Pink Sheet Forecast Pattern

Backtest Magyar TelekomMagyar Telekom Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Magyar Telekom Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Magyar Telekom's Pink Sheet value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Magyar Telekom's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 12.25 and 16.78, respectively. We have considered Magyar Telekom's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
15.15
14.52
Expected Value
16.78
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Magyar Telekom pink sheet data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Magyar Telekom pink sheet, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria115.3881
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1912
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.013
SAESum of the absolute errors11.6609
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Magyar Telekom Plc. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Magyar Telekom. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Magyar Telekom

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Magyar Telekom Plc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
12.8915.1517.41
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
10.3612.6216.67
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.1515.1515.15
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Magyar Telekom. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Magyar Telekom's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Magyar Telekom's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Magyar Telekom Plc.

Other Forecasting Options for Magyar Telekom

For every potential investor in Magyar, whether a beginner or expert, Magyar Telekom's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Magyar Pink Sheet price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Magyar. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Magyar Telekom's price trends.

Magyar Telekom Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Magyar Telekom pink sheet to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Magyar Telekom could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Magyar Telekom by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Magyar Telekom Plc Technical and Predictive Analytics

The pink sheet market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Magyar Telekom's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Magyar Telekom's current price.

Magyar Telekom Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Magyar Telekom pink sheet reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Magyar Telekom shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Magyar Telekom pink sheet market strength indicators, traders can identify Magyar Telekom Plc entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Magyar Telekom Risk Indicators

The analysis of Magyar Telekom's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Magyar Telekom's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting magyar pink sheet prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Additional Tools for Magyar Pink Sheet Analysis

When running Magyar Telekom's price analysis, check to measure Magyar Telekom's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Magyar Telekom is operating at the current time. Most of Magyar Telekom's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Magyar Telekom's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Magyar Telekom's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Magyar Telekom to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.