National Australia Stock Forward View
| NABPJ Stock | 105.05 0.05 0.05% |
National Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast National Australia stock prices and determine the direction of National Australia Bank's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of National Australia's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of National Australia's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.01) | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.014 |
Using National Australia hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National Australia Bank from the perspective of National Australia response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Australia Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 105.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.18. National Australia after-hype prediction price | AUD 105.1 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
National |
National Australia Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
National Australia Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 18th of February 2026
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National Australia Bank on the next trading day is expected to be 105.37 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.22, mean absolute percentage error of 0.08, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.18.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National Australia's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
National Australia Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest National Australia | National Australia Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
National Australia Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting National Australia's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National Australia's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 105.13 and 105.61, respectively. We have considered National Australia's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National Australia stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National Australia stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5561 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.216 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0021 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 13.1754 |
Predictive Modules for National Australia
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National Australia Bank. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.National Australia After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of National Australia at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National Australia or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National Australia, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
National Australia Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting National Australia's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on National Australia's historical news coverage. National Australia's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 104.86 and 105.34, respectively. We have considered National Australia's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
National Australia is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of National Australia Bank is based on 3 months time horizon.
National Australia Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National Australia is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National Australia backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National Australia, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.03 | 0.24 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 4 Events / Month | 2 Events / Month | In about 4 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
105.05 | 105.10 | 0.00 |
|
National Australia Hype Timeline
National Australia Bank is now traded for 105.05on Australian Securities Exchange of Australia. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. National is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is about 171.43%. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.03%. %. The volatility of related hype on National Australia is about 547.01%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 105.05. The company last dividend was issued on the 4th of June 2025. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be in about 4 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of National Australia to cross-verify your projections.National Australia Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to National Australia's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National Australia's future price movements. Getting to know how National Australia's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National Australia may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| THL | Tourism Holdings Rentals | (0.05) | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 5.56 | (4.81) | 13.52 | |
| KM1 | Kali Metals | 0.00 | 4 per month | 3.48 | 0.03 | 11.76 | (8.70) | 28.27 | |
| FPH | Fisher Paykel Healthcare | 0.26 | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.10) | 1.88 | (1.91) | 11.09 | |
| DPM | Dpm Metals | (0.58) | 10 per month | 3.02 | 0.19 | 5.68 | (3.66) | 19.41 | |
| QBE | QBE Insurance Group | (0.09) | 5 per month | 0.00 | (0.1) | 1.43 | (2.00) | 5.46 | |
| SLB | Stelar Metals | (0) | 3 per month | 3.14 | (0.01) | 7.14 | (8.00) | 19.27 | |
| AAM | Aumega Metals | 0.00 | 5 per month | 3.74 | 0.03 | 8.57 | (7.14) | 24.54 | |
| LLC | Lendlease Group | 0.11 | 3 per month | 0.00 | (0.26) | 1.58 | (2.42) | 8.67 |
Other Forecasting Options for National Australia
For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National Australia's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National Australia's price trends.National Australia Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National Australia stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National Australia could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National Australia by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
National Australia Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National Australia stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National Australia shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National Australia stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National Australia Bank entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
National Australia Risk Indicators
The analysis of National Australia's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National Australia's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 0.1804 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.1846 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2453 | |||
| Variance | 0.0602 | |||
| Downside Variance | 0.0702 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.0341 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (0.19) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for National Australia
The number of cover stories for National Australia depends on current market conditions and National Australia's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National Australia is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National Australia's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
Other Macroaxis Stories
Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios
Story Categories
Currently Trending Categories
National Australia Short Properties
National Australia's future price predictability will typically decrease when National Australia's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of National Australia Bank often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential National Australia's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. National Australia's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 B | |
| Short Term Investments | 42.8 B |
Other Information on Investing in National Stock
National Australia financial ratios help investors to determine whether National Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in National with respect to the benefits of owning National Australia security.