Niagen Bioscience Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| NAGE Stock | 6.15 0.00 0.00% |
Niagen Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Niagen Bioscience stock prices and determine the direction of Niagen Bioscience's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Niagen Bioscience's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time, the relative strength index (RSI) of Niagen Bioscience's share price is approaching 42. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling Niagen Bioscience, making its price go up or down. Momentum 42
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.5 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.18 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.25 | Wall Street Target Price 15.8 | EPS Estimate Current Quarter 0.01 |
Using Niagen Bioscience hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Niagen Bioscience from the perspective of Niagen Bioscience response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors. We also analyze overall investor sentiment towards Niagen Bioscience using Niagen Bioscience's stock options and short interest. It helps to benchmark the overall future attitude of investors towards Niagen using crowd psychology based on the activity and movement of Niagen Bioscience's stock price.
Niagen Bioscience Short Interest
A significant increase or decrease in Niagen Bioscience's short interest from the previous month could be a good indicator of investor sentiment towards Niagen. Short interest can provide insight into the potential direction of Niagen Bioscience stock and how bullish or bearish investors feel about the market overall.
200 Day MA 8.8348 | Short Percent 0.1075 | Short Ratio 7.37 | Shares Short Prior Month 5.6 M | 50 Day MA 6.579 |
Niagen Relative Strength Index
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Niagen Bioscience on the next trading day is expected to be 6.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.76.Niagen Bioscience Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Niagen Bioscience's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Niagen. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Niagen can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Niagen Bioscience. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Niagen Bioscience's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Niagen Bioscience.
Niagen Bioscience Implied Volatility | 1.78 |
Niagen Bioscience's implied volatility exposes the market's sentiment of Niagen Bioscience stock's possible movements over time. However, it does not forecast the overall direction of its price. In a nutshell, if Niagen Bioscience's implied volatility is high, the market thinks the stock has potential for high price swings in either direction. On the other hand, the low implied volatility suggests that Niagen Bioscience stock will not fluctuate a lot when Niagen Bioscience's options are near their expiration.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Niagen Bioscience on the next trading day is expected to be 6.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13 and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.76. Niagen Bioscience after-hype prediction price | USD 5.93 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Niagen Bioscience to cross-verify your projections. Open Interest Against 2026-03-20 Niagen Option Contracts
Although open interest is a measure utilized in the options markets, it could be used to forecast Niagen Bioscience's spot prices because the number of available contracts in the market changes daily, and new contracts can be created or liquidated at will. Since open interest in Niagen Bioscience's options reflects these daily shifts, investors could use the patterns of these changes to develop long and short-term trading strategies for Niagen Bioscience stock based on available contracts left at the end of a trading day.
Please note that to derive more accurate forecasting about market movement from the current Niagen Bioscience's open interest, investors have to compare it to Niagen Bioscience's spot prices. As Ford's stock price increases, high open interest indicates that money is entering the market, and the market is strongly bullish. Conversely, if the price of Niagen Bioscience is decreasing and there is high open interest, that is a sign that the bearish trend will continue, and investors may react by taking short positions in Niagen. So, decreasing or low open interest during a bull market indicates that investors are becoming uncertain of the depth of the bullish trend, and a reversal in sentiment will likely follow.
Niagen Bioscience Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Niagen price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Niagen using various technical indicators. When you analyze Niagen charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Niagen Bioscience Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 28th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Niagen Bioscience on the next trading day is expected to be 6.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.13, mean absolute percentage error of 0.03, and the sum of the absolute errors of 7.76.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Niagen Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Niagen Bioscience's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Niagen Bioscience Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Niagen Bioscience | Niagen Bioscience Price Prediction | Buy or Sell Advice |
Niagen Bioscience Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Niagen Bioscience's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Niagen Bioscience's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 3.77 and 8.51, respectively. We have considered Niagen Bioscience's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Niagen Bioscience stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Niagen Bioscience stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 112.5877 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0237 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1293 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0194 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 7.759 |
Predictive Modules for Niagen Bioscience
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Niagen Bioscience. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Niagen Bioscience After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Niagen Bioscience at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Niagen Bioscience or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Niagen Bioscience, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Niagen Bioscience Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Niagen Bioscience's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Niagen Bioscience's historical news coverage. Niagen Bioscience's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 3.56 and 8.30, respectively. We have considered Niagen Bioscience's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Niagen Bioscience is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Niagen Bioscience is based on 3 months time horizon.
Niagen Bioscience Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Niagen Bioscience is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Niagen Bioscience backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Niagen Bioscience, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.29 | 2.37 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 10 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
6.15 | 5.93 | 1.33 |
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Niagen Bioscience Hype Timeline
Niagen Bioscience is now traded for 6.15. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.08. Niagen is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 5.93. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is over 100%. The price decrease on the next news is expected to be -1.33%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.29%. The volatility of related hype on Niagen Bioscience is about 915.06%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 6.23. About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company had not issued any dividends in recent years. Niagen Bioscience had 1:3 split on the 13th of April 2016. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Niagen Bioscience to cross-verify your projections.Niagen Bioscience Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Niagen Bioscience's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Niagen Bioscience's future price movements. Getting to know how Niagen Bioscience's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Niagen Bioscience may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| OLMA | Olema Pharmaceuticals | (0.18) | 11 per month | 2.77 | 0.14 | 9.82 | (5.86) | 145.73 | |
| CRVS | Corvus Pharmaceuticals | 0.34 | 7 per month | 2.61 | 0.13 | 9.63 | (5.51) | 167.61 | |
| PRTA | Prothena plc | 0.77 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.03) | 5.10 | (3.82) | 12.28 | |
| VTYX | Ventyx Biosciences | (1.59) | 10 per month | 3.58 | 0.21 | 14.60 | (6.90) | 86.34 | |
| KROS | Keros Therapeutics | 0.03 | 10 per month | 2.24 | 0.09 | 5.33 | (3.36) | 20.93 | |
| AKBA | Akebia Ther | (0.09) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.19) | 5.24 | (6.25) | 36.66 | |
| RIGL | Rigel Pharmaceuticals | 3.29 | 10 per month | 3.80 | 0.06 | 8.66 | (7.41) | 44.65 | |
| ZVRA | Zevra Therapeutics | 0.16 | 7 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 4.43 | (6.51) | 14.16 | |
| RGNX | Regenxbio | (0.21) | 8 per month | 4.24 | 0.02 | 7.94 | (6.66) | 23.68 | |
| KALV | Kalvista Pharmaceuticals | 0.07 | 7 per month | 3.21 | 0.1 | 8.43 | (5.92) | 25.15 |
Other Forecasting Options for Niagen Bioscience
For every potential investor in Niagen, whether a beginner or expert, Niagen Bioscience's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Niagen Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Niagen. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Niagen Bioscience's price trends.Niagen Bioscience Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Niagen Bioscience stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Niagen Bioscience could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Niagen Bioscience by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Niagen Bioscience Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Niagen Bioscience stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Niagen Bioscience shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Niagen Bioscience stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Niagen Bioscience entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 0.0506 | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 6.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 6.16 | |||
| Market Facilitation Index | 0.32 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.02) | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 42.27 |
Niagen Bioscience Risk Indicators
The analysis of Niagen Bioscience's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Niagen Bioscience's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting niagen stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 1.91 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 2.4 | |||
| Variance | 5.75 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Niagen Bioscience
The number of cover stories for Niagen Bioscience depends on current market conditions and Niagen Bioscience's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Niagen Bioscience is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Niagen Bioscience's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Niagen Bioscience Short Properties
Niagen Bioscience's future price predictability will typically decrease when Niagen Bioscience's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Niagen Bioscience often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Niagen Bioscience's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Niagen Bioscience's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 79.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 44.5 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Niagen Bioscience to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Niagen Stock refer to our How to Trade Niagen Stock guide.You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Is Life Sciences Tools & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Niagen Bioscience. If investors know Niagen will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Niagen Bioscience listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 1.5 | Earnings Share 0.24 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.329 | Return On Assets |
The market value of Niagen Bioscience is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Niagen that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Niagen Bioscience's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Niagen Bioscience's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Niagen Bioscience's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Niagen Bioscience's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Niagen Bioscience's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Niagen Bioscience is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Niagen Bioscience's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.