NewAmsterdam Pharma Stock Forward View - Simple Regression
| NAMSW Stock | 20.00 0.55 2.83% |
NewAmsterdam Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time, the RSI of NewAmsterdam Pharma's share price is approaching 39. This indicates that the stock is in nutural position, most likellhy at or near its support level. The main point of RSI analysis is to track how fast people are buying or selling NewAmsterdam Pharma, making its price go up or down. Momentum 39
Sell Extended
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.99) |
Using NewAmsterdam Pharma hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of NewAmsterdam Pharma from the perspective of NewAmsterdam Pharma response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of NewAmsterdam Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 19.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.00. NewAmsterdam Pharma after-hype prediction price | USD 21.51 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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NewAmsterdam Pharma Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine NewAmsterdam price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for NewAmsterdam using various technical indicators. When you analyze NewAmsterdam charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 5th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of NewAmsterdam Pharma on the next trading day is expected to be 19.91 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.16, mean absolute percentage error of 2.21, and the sum of the absolute errors of 71.00.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict NewAmsterdam Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that NewAmsterdam Pharma's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
NewAmsterdam Pharma Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest NewAmsterdam Pharma | NewAmsterdam Pharma Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting NewAmsterdam Pharma's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. NewAmsterdam Pharma's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.94 and 24.87, respectively. We have considered NewAmsterdam Pharma's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of NewAmsterdam Pharma stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent NewAmsterdam Pharma stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 118.9046 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 1.164 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0478 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 71.0044 |
Predictive Modules for NewAmsterdam Pharma
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NewAmsterdam Pharma. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NewAmsterdam Pharma's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NewAmsterdam Pharma After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of NewAmsterdam Pharma at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in NewAmsterdam Pharma or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of NewAmsterdam Pharma, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting NewAmsterdam Pharma's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on NewAmsterdam Pharma's historical news coverage. NewAmsterdam Pharma's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.55 and 26.47, respectively. We have considered NewAmsterdam Pharma's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
NewAmsterdam Pharma is somewhat reliable at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of NewAmsterdam Pharma is based on 3 months time horizon.
NewAmsterdam Pharma Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as NewAmsterdam Pharma is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading NewAmsterdam Pharma backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with NewAmsterdam Pharma, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.37 | 4.96 | 1.51 | 0.11 | 9 Events / Month | 7 Events / Month | In about 9 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
20.00 | 21.51 | 7.55 |
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NewAmsterdam Pharma Hype Timeline
NewAmsterdam Pharma is now traded for 20.00. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 1.51, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.11. NewAmsterdam is projected to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.51 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is about 121.87%. The price increase on the next news is projected to be 7.55%, whereas the daily expected return is now at -0.37%. The volatility of related hype on NewAmsterdam Pharma is about 1746.48%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.11. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next projected press release will be in about 9 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of NewAmsterdam Pharma to cross-verify your projections.NewAmsterdam Pharma Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to NewAmsterdam Pharma's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict NewAmsterdam Pharma's future price movements. Getting to know how NewAmsterdam Pharma's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how NewAmsterdam Pharma may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| SRRK | Scholar Rock Holding | 0.44 | 10 per month | 2.40 | 0.18 | 5.92 | (4.21) | 31.68 | |
| VCYT | Veracyte | 1.00 | 11 per month | 2.67 | 0.03 | 5.74 | (4.02) | 36.91 | |
| IDYA | Ideaya Biosciences | 1.28 | 7 per month | 2.06 | 0.03 | 4.86 | (3.68) | 10.56 | |
| KNSA | Kiniksa Pharmaceuticals | (2.95) | 9 per month | 1.84 | 0.12 | 3.33 | (3.63) | 10.07 | |
| ZLAB | Zai Lab | 0.02 | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.27) | 4.56 | (4.03) | 10.32 | |
| FOLD | Amicus Therapeutics | (0.04) | 10 per month | 0.00 | 0.19 | 3.45 | (1.31) | 30.77 | |
| TARS | Tarsus Pharmaceuticals | 1.08 | 8 per month | 2.14 | (0.02) | 3.78 | (3.76) | 12.48 | |
| IRON | Disc Medicine | 1.63 | 8 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.33 | (4.35) | 14.87 | |
| LEGN | Legend Biotech Corp | 0.49 | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.31) | 3.83 | (6.84) | 19.65 | |
| MLYS | Mineralys Therapeutics Common | (0.11) | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.09) | 5.87 | (6.28) | 24.81 |
Other Forecasting Options for NewAmsterdam Pharma
For every potential investor in NewAmsterdam, whether a beginner or expert, NewAmsterdam Pharma's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. NewAmsterdam Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in NewAmsterdam. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying NewAmsterdam Pharma's price trends.NewAmsterdam Pharma Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with NewAmsterdam Pharma stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of NewAmsterdam Pharma could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing NewAmsterdam Pharma by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how NewAmsterdam Pharma stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading NewAmsterdam Pharma shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying NewAmsterdam Pharma stock market strength indicators, traders can identify NewAmsterdam Pharma entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | 9.2 T | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.03 | |||
| Day Median Price | 20.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 20.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | 0.28 | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | 0.55 | |||
| Relative Strength Index | 39.31 |
NewAmsterdam Pharma Risk Indicators
The analysis of NewAmsterdam Pharma's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in NewAmsterdam Pharma's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting newamsterdam stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.88 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.12 | |||
| Variance | 26.21 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for NewAmsterdam Pharma
The number of cover stories for NewAmsterdam Pharma depends on current market conditions and NewAmsterdam Pharma's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that NewAmsterdam Pharma is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about NewAmsterdam Pharma's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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NewAmsterdam Pharma Short Properties
NewAmsterdam Pharma's future price predictability will typically decrease when NewAmsterdam Pharma's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of NewAmsterdam Pharma often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential NewAmsterdam Pharma's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. NewAmsterdam Pharma's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 94.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 834.2 M |
Additional Tools for NewAmsterdam Stock Analysis
When running NewAmsterdam Pharma's price analysis, check to measure NewAmsterdam Pharma's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy NewAmsterdam Pharma is operating at the current time. Most of NewAmsterdam Pharma's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of NewAmsterdam Pharma's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move NewAmsterdam Pharma's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of NewAmsterdam Pharma to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.