Duckhorn Portfolio Stock Forecast - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| NAPA Stock | USD 10.99 0.06 0.54% |
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duckhorn Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 10.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.19. Duckhorn Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Duckhorn Portfolio stock prices and determine the direction of Duckhorn Portfolio's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of Duckhorn Portfolio's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
Duckhorn |
Duckhorn Portfolio Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 23rd of November
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Duckhorn Portfolio on the next trading day is expected to be 10.96 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.54, and the sum of the absolute errors of 9.19.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Duckhorn Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Duckhorn Portfolio's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Duckhorn Portfolio Stock Forecast Pattern
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Duckhorn Portfolio Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Duckhorn Portfolio's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Duckhorn Portfolio's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 0.11 and 23.92, respectively. We have considered Duckhorn Portfolio's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Duckhorn Portfolio stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Duckhorn Portfolio stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | -0.109 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1558 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0176 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 9.19 |
Predictive Modules for Duckhorn Portfolio
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Duckhorn Portfolio. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Other Forecasting Options for Duckhorn Portfolio
For every potential investor in Duckhorn, whether a beginner or expert, Duckhorn Portfolio's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Duckhorn Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Duckhorn. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Duckhorn Portfolio's price trends.Duckhorn Portfolio Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Duckhorn Portfolio stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Duckhorn Portfolio could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Duckhorn Portfolio by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Duckhorn Portfolio Technical and Predictive Analytics
The stock market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Duckhorn Portfolio's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Duckhorn Portfolio's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Duckhorn Portfolio Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Duckhorn Portfolio stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Duckhorn Portfolio shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Duckhorn Portfolio stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Duckhorn Portfolio entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Accumulation Distribution | 38631.31 | |||
| Daily Balance Of Power | (0.75) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.99 | |||
| Day Median Price | 11.0 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 11.0 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.04) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.06) |
Duckhorn Portfolio Risk Indicators
The analysis of Duckhorn Portfolio's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Duckhorn Portfolio's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting duckhorn stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 3.23 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 0.8734 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 12.78 | |||
| Variance | 163.27 | |||
| Downside Variance | 3.66 | |||
| Semi Variance | 0.7628 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (4.05) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Also Currently Popular
Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.When determining whether Duckhorn Portfolio offers a strong return on investment in its stock, a comprehensive analysis is essential. The process typically begins with a thorough review of Duckhorn Portfolio's financial statements, including income statements, balance sheets, and cash flow statements, to assess its financial health. Key financial ratios are used to gauge profitability, efficiency, and growth potential of Duckhorn Portfolio Stock. Outlined below are crucial reports that will aid in making a well-informed decision on Duckhorn Portfolio Stock:Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Duckhorn Portfolio to cross-verify your projections. For information on how to trade Duckhorn Stock refer to our How to Trade Duckhorn Stock guide.You can also try the Equity Analysis module to research over 250,000 global equities including funds, stocks and ETFs to find investment opportunities.
Is Distillers & Vintners space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Duckhorn Portfolio. If investors know Duckhorn will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Duckhorn Portfolio listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.52) | Earnings Share 0.45 | Revenue Per Share 3.285 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.073 | Return On Assets 0.0396 |
The market value of Duckhorn Portfolio is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Duckhorn that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Duckhorn Portfolio's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Duckhorn Portfolio's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Duckhorn Portfolio's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Duckhorn Portfolio's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Duckhorn Portfolio's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Duckhorn Portfolio is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Duckhorn Portfolio's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.