Norwegian Air Stock Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing

NAS Stock  NOK 16.02  0.24  1.48%   
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwegian Air Shuttle on the next trading day is expected to be 16.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.72. Norwegian Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
As of now the value of rsi of Norwegian Air's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Norwegian Air's future price could yield a significant profit. Please, note that this module is not intended to be used solely to calculate an intrinsic value of Norwegian Air and does not consider all of the tangible or intangible factors available from Norwegian Air's fundamental data. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with Norwegian Air Shuttle, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Norwegian Air hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Norwegian Air Shuttle from the perspective of Norwegian Air response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwegian Air Shuttle on the next trading day is expected to be 16.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23 and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.72.

Norwegian Air after-hype prediction price

    
  NOK 16.02  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwegian Air to cross-verify your projections.

Norwegian Air Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Norwegian price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Norwegian using various technical indicators. When you analyze Norwegian charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Norwegian Air simple exponential smoothing forecast is a very popular model used to produce a smoothed price series. Whereas in simple Moving Average models the past observations for Norwegian Air Shuttle are weighted equally, Exponential Smoothing assigns exponentially decreasing weights as Norwegian Air Shuttle prices get older.

Norwegian Air Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 26th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Norwegian Air Shuttle on the next trading day is expected to be 16.02 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.23, mean absolute percentage error of 0.09, and the sum of the absolute errors of 13.72.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Norwegian Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Norwegian Air's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Norwegian Air Stock Forecast Pattern

Backtest Norwegian AirNorwegian Air Price PredictionBuy or Sell Advice 

Norwegian Air Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Norwegian Air's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Norwegian Air's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.17 and 17.87, respectively. We have considered Norwegian Air's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
16.02
16.02
Expected Value
17.87
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Norwegian Air stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Norwegian Air stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria113.894
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors -0.01
MADMean absolute deviation0.2287
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.014
SAESum of the absolute errors13.72
This simple exponential smoothing model begins by setting Norwegian Air Shuttle forecast for the second period equal to the observation of the first period. In other words, recent Norwegian Air observations are given relatively more weight in forecasting than the older observations.

Predictive Modules for Norwegian Air

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Norwegian Air Shuttle. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
14.1716.0217.87
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
12.2914.1417.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
15.5316.8818.24
Details

Norwegian Air After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Norwegian Air at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Norwegian Air or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Norwegian Air, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Norwegian Air Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Norwegian Air's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Norwegian Air's historical news coverage. Norwegian Air's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.17 and 17.87, respectively. We have considered Norwegian Air's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
16.02
16.02
After-hype Price
17.87
Upside
Norwegian Air is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Norwegian Air Shuttle is based on 3 months time horizon.

Norwegian Air Stock Price Prediction Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Norwegian Air is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Norwegian Air backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Norwegian Air, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.08 
1.85
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
16.02
16.02
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

Norwegian Air Hype Timeline

Norwegian Air Shuttle is now traded for 16.02on Oslo Stock Exchange of Norway. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. Norwegian is projected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is projected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.08%. %. The volatility of related hype on Norwegian Air is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 16.02. About 20.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.62. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Norwegian Air Shuttle has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.64. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. The firm had 1:100 split on the 18th of December 2020. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next projected press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Norwegian Air to cross-verify your projections.

Norwegian Air Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Norwegian Air's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Norwegian Air's future price movements. Getting to know how Norwegian Air's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Norwegian Air may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
CADLRCadeler As 0.00 0 per month 2.06  0.03  3.87 (3.16) 10.67 
HAUTOHoegh Autoliners ASA 0.00 0 per month 2.13  0.03  2.99 (3.61) 9.11 
SNIStolt Nielsen Limited 0.00 0 per month 1.50  0.05  3.14 (2.91) 9.53 
AFGAF Gruppen ASA 0.00 0 per month 1.05  0.07  2.27 (1.82) 9.77 
NORCONorconsult ASA 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.09) 1.81 (2.22) 5.82 
BWLPGBW LPG 0.00 0 per month 1.87  0.08  4.26 (3.14) 12.28 
WWIBWilh Wilhelmsen Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.88  0.18  2.31 (1.77) 10.28 
DOFGDOF Group ASA 0.00 0 per month 0.87  0.24  2.43 (1.76) 6.95 
VEIVeidekke ASA 0.00 0 per month 0.70  0.12  1.88 (1.51) 7.39 
WWIWilh Wilhelmsen Holding 0.00 0 per month 0.69  0.23  2.20 (1.88) 7.92 

Other Forecasting Options for Norwegian Air

For every potential investor in Norwegian, whether a beginner or expert, Norwegian Air's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Norwegian Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Norwegian. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Norwegian Air's price trends.

Norwegian Air Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Norwegian Air stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Norwegian Air could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Norwegian Air by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Norwegian Air Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Norwegian Air stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Norwegian Air shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Norwegian Air stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Norwegian Air Shuttle entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Norwegian Air Risk Indicators

The analysis of Norwegian Air's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Norwegian Air's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting norwegian stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Norwegian Air

The number of cover stories for Norwegian Air depends on current market conditions and Norwegian Air's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Norwegian Air is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Norwegian Air's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Norwegian Air Short Properties

Norwegian Air's future price predictability will typically decrease when Norwegian Air's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Norwegian Air Shuttle often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Norwegian Air's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Norwegian Air's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding79.9 M
Cash And Short Term Investments6.8 B

Other Information on Investing in Norwegian Stock

Norwegian Air financial ratios help investors to determine whether Norwegian Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Norwegian with respect to the benefits of owning Norwegian Air security.