Sector Rotation Mutual Fund Forward View - Simple Regression

NAVFX Fund  USD 18.31  0.29  1.61%   
Sector Mutual Fund outlook is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the relative strength index (rsi) of Sector Rotation's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the mutual fund is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of Sector Rotation's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with The Sector Rotation, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using Sector Rotation hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of The Sector Rotation from the perspective of Sector Rotation response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Simple Regression forecasted value of The Sector Rotation on the next trading day is expected to be 18.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16 and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.01.

Sector Rotation after-hype prediction price

    
  USD 17.41  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as fund price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sector Rotation to cross-verify your projections.

Sector Rotation Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine Sector price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Sector using various technical indicators. When you analyze Sector charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
Simple Regression model is a single variable regression model that attempts to put a straight line through Sector Rotation price points. This line is defined by its gradient or slope, and the point at which it intercepts the x-axis. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, then this line can be represented as: Y = intercept + slope * X.

Sector Rotation Simple Regression Price Forecast For the 7th of February

Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Regression forecasted value of The Sector Rotation on the next trading day is expected to be 18.60 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.16, mean absolute percentage error of 0.04, and the sum of the absolute errors of 10.01.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Sector Mutual Fund prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Sector Rotation's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

Sector Rotation Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Sector Rotation  Sector Rotation Price Prediction  Research Analysis  

Sector Rotation Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting Sector Rotation's Mutual Fund value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Sector Rotation's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 17.87 and 19.33, respectively. We have considered Sector Rotation's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
18.31
18.60
Expected Value
19.33
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Sector Rotation mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Sector Rotation mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria114.9566
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation0.1641
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0092
SAESum of the absolute errors10.0102
In general, regression methods applied to historical equity returns or prices series is an area of active research. In recent decades, new methods have been developed for robust regression of price series such as The Sector Rotation historical returns. These new methods are regression involving correlated responses such as growth curves and different regression methods accommodating various types of missing data.

Predictive Modules for Sector Rotation

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sector Rotation. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
16.7017.4118.12
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
17.1217.8318.54
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
17.1717.9518.72
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Sector Rotation. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Sector Rotation's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Sector Rotation's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Sector Rotation.

Sector Rotation After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of Sector Rotation at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Sector Rotation or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Mutual Fund prices, such as prices of Sector Rotation, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

Sector Rotation Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting Sector Rotation's mutual fund value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Sector Rotation's historical news coverage. Sector Rotation's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.70 and 18.12, respectively. We have considered Sector Rotation's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
18.31
17.41
After-hype Price
18.12
Upside
Sector Rotation is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Sector Rotation is based on 3 months time horizon.

Sector Rotation Mutual Fund Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Mutual Fund such as Sector Rotation is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Sector Rotation backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Fund price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Sector Rotation, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.10 
0.73
 0.00  
  0.01 
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
18.31
17.41
3.39 
0.00  
Notes

Sector Rotation Hype Timeline

Sector Rotation is now traded for 18.31. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.01. Sector is forecasted to decline in value after the next headline, with the price expected to drop to 17.41. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company price is insignificant. The price reduction on the next news is expected to be -3.39%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.1%. The volatility of related hype on Sector Rotation is about 1042.86%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.30. The company last dividend was issued on the 17th of December 2019. Assuming the 90 days horizon the next forecasted press release will be uncertain.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Sector Rotation to cross-verify your projections.

Sector Rotation Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to Sector Rotation's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Sector Rotation's future price movements. Getting to know how Sector Rotation's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Sector Rotation may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for Sector Rotation

For every potential investor in Sector, whether a beginner or expert, Sector Rotation's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Sector Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Sector. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Sector Rotation's price trends.

Sector Rotation Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Sector Rotation mutual fund to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Sector Rotation could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Sector Rotation by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

Sector Rotation Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Sector Rotation mutual fund reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Sector Rotation shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Sector Rotation mutual fund market strength indicators, traders can identify The Sector Rotation entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

Sector Rotation Risk Indicators

The analysis of Sector Rotation's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Sector Rotation's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting sector mutual fund prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for Sector Rotation

The number of cover stories for Sector Rotation depends on current market conditions and Sector Rotation's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Sector Rotation is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Sector Rotation's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

Our audience includes start-ups and big corporations as well as marketing, public relation firms, and advertising agencies, including technology and finance journalists. Our platform and its news and story outlet are popular among finance students, amateur traders, self-guided investors, entrepreneurs, retirees and baby boomers, academic researchers, financial advisers, as well as professional money managers - a very diverse and influential demographic landscape united by one goal - build optimal investment portfolios

Other Information on Investing in Sector Mutual Fund

Sector Rotation financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sector Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sector with respect to the benefits of owning Sector Rotation security.
Portfolio Volatility
Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk
Crypto Correlations
Use cryptocurrency correlation module to diversify your cryptocurrency portfolio across multiple coins
Commodity Channel
Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum
Equity Forecasting
Use basic forecasting models to generate price predictions and determine price momentum