National BankXD Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction

NBP-CMAR   276.95  0.33  0.12%   
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National BankXD on the next trading day is expected to be 277.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.62. Investors can use prediction functions to forecast National BankXD's stock prices and determine the direction of National BankXD's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. However, exclusively looking at the historical price movement is usually misleading. We recommend always using this module together with an analysis of National BankXD's historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns. Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment. As of today the value of rsi of National BankXD's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards.

Momentum 0

 Sell Peaked

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of National BankXD's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with National BankXD, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using National BankXD hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of National BankXD from the perspective of National BankXD response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of National BankXD on the next trading day is expected to be 277.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.89 and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.62.

National BankXD after-hype prediction price

    
  PKR 276.95  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.

National BankXD Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine National price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for National using various technical indicators. When you analyze National charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
A naive forecasting model for National BankXD is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of National BankXD value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

National BankXD Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of National BankXD on the next trading day is expected to be 277.14 with a mean absolute deviation of 2.89, mean absolute percentage error of 11.79, and the sum of the absolute errors of 60.62.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict National Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that National BankXD's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

National BankXD Stock Forecast Pattern

National BankXD Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting National BankXD's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. National BankXD's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 275.40 and 278.89, respectively. We have considered National BankXD's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
276.95
275.40
Downside
277.14
Expected Value
278.89
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of National BankXD stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent National BankXD stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria47.0626
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation2.8869
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0108
SAESum of the absolute errors60.624
This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of National BankXD. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict National BankXD. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for National BankXD

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as National BankXD. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of National BankXD's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.

National BankXD Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

As far as predicting the price of National BankXD at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in National BankXD or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of National BankXD, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

National BankXD Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as National BankXD is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading National BankXD backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with National BankXD, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.43 
1.74
 0.00  
 0.00  
0 Events / Month
0 Events / Month
Uncertain
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
276.95
276.95
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

National BankXD Hype Timeline

National BankXD is now traded for 276.95on Karachi Stock Exchange of Pakistan. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is 0.0. National is expected not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is expected to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.43%. %. The volatility of related hype on National BankXD is about 0.0%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 276.95. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next expected press release will be uncertain.
Check out Correlation Analysis to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in unemployment.

National BankXD Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to National BankXD's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict National BankXD's future price movements. Getting to know how National BankXD's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how National BankXD may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
Hype
Elasticity
News
Density
Semi
Deviation
Information
Ratio
Potential
Upside
Value
At Risk
Maximum
Drawdown
FABLFaysal Bank 0.00 0 per month 1.16  0.05  3.06 (2.31) 8.06 
HICLHabib Insurance 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.08) 2.65 (2.71) 6.29 
GALGhandhara Automobile 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.14) 1.77 (1.83) 5.96 
SMCPLSafe Mix Concrete 0.00 0 per month 3.05  0.06  7.87 (4.35) 19.71 
SHDTShadab Textile Mills 0.00 0 per month 1.83 (0.02) 3.95 (3.09) 14.67 
CENICentury Insurance 0.00 0 per month 1.81  0.05  3.73 (3.81) 12.59 
HBLTETFHBL Total TreasuryXD 0.00 0 per month 0.00 (0.04) 0.56 (0.23) 2.35 
CWSMChakwal Spinning Mills 0.00 0 per month 3.64  0.14  10.01 (6.97) 19.45 
REWMReliance Weaving Mills 0.00 0 per month 2.02  0.23  9.88 (5.79) 17.70 
FSWLFateh Sports Wear 0.00 0 per month 3.06 (0.01) 8.70 (7.92) 19.67 

Other Forecasting Options for National BankXD

For every potential investor in National, whether a beginner or expert, National BankXD's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. National Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in National. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying National BankXD's price trends.

National BankXD Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with National BankXD stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of National BankXD could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing National BankXD by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

National BankXD Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how National BankXD stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading National BankXD shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying National BankXD stock market strength indicators, traders can identify National BankXD entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

National BankXD Risk Indicators

The analysis of National BankXD's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in National BankXD's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting national stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for National BankXD

The number of cover stories for National BankXD depends on current market conditions and National BankXD's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that National BankXD is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about National BankXD's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

Other Macroaxis Stories

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