Nanobiotix Stock Forecast - Naive Prediction
| NBTX Stock | USD 20.94 0.44 2.06% |
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nanobiotix on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.40. Nanobiotix Stock Forecast is based on your current time horizon.
At this time the rsi of Nanobiotix's share price is below 20 . This indicates that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
EPS Estimate Current Year (0.46) | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6949 | Wall Street Target Price 23.2635 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.868 |
Using Nanobiotix hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Nanobiotix from the perspective of Nanobiotix response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nanobiotix on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61 and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.40. Nanobiotix after-hype prediction price | USD 21.07 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
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Nanobiotix Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Nanobiotix price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Nanobiotix using various technical indicators. When you analyze Nanobiotix charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
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Forecasting cash, or other financial indicators, requires analysts to apply different statistical methods, techniques, and algorithms to find hidden patterns within the Nanobiotix's financial statements to predict how it will affect future prices.
Cash | First Reported 2011-12-31 | Previous Quarter 49.7 M | Current Value 28.8 M | Quarterly Volatility 31 M |
Nanobiotix Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 26th of January
Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Nanobiotix on the next trading day is expected to be 21.87 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.61, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 37.40.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Nanobiotix Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Nanobiotix's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Nanobiotix Stock Forecast Pattern
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Nanobiotix Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Nanobiotix's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Nanobiotix's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 16.80 and 26.95, respectively. We have considered Nanobiotix's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Nanobiotix stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Nanobiotix stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 117.4776 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | None |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.6131 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0292 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 37.4007 |
Predictive Modules for Nanobiotix
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Nanobiotix. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Nanobiotix's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Nanobiotix After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Nanobiotix at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Nanobiotix or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Nanobiotix, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Nanobiotix Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Nanobiotix's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Nanobiotix's historical news coverage. Nanobiotix's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 16.00 and 26.14, respectively. We have considered Nanobiotix's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Nanobiotix is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Nanobiotix is based on 3 months time horizon.
Nanobiotix Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Nanobiotix is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Nanobiotix backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Nanobiotix, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.66 | 5.07 | 0.13 | 0.21 | 11 Events / Month | 8 Events / Month | In about 11 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
20.94 | 21.07 | 0.62 |
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Nanobiotix Hype Timeline
Nanobiotix is now traded for 20.94. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.13, and average elasticity to hype of competition of -0.21. Nanobiotix is anticipated to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 21.07 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price jump on the next news is projected to be 0.62%, whereas the daily expected return is now at 0.66%. The volatility of related hype on Nanobiotix is about 1589.34%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 20.73. Net Loss for the year was (68.13 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 10.16 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 11 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Nanobiotix to cross-verify your projections.Nanobiotix Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Nanobiotix's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Nanobiotix's future price movements. Getting to know how Nanobiotix's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Nanobiotix may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| GHRS | GH Research PLC | (0.18) | 10 per month | 4.38 | 0.06 | 6.76 | (8.67) | 40.50 | |
| SPRY | ARS Pharmaceuticals | (0.41) | 4 per month | 4.43 | 0.02 | 8.29 | (8.73) | 32.13 | |
| SVRA | Savara Inc | (0.41) | 7 per month | 2.82 | 0.14 | 8.25 | (4.98) | 24.50 | |
| TYRA | Tyra Biosciences | (0.41) | 18 per month | 1.82 | 0.24 | 6.05 | (3.43) | 34.11 | |
| RZLT | Rezolute | 0.19 | 9 per month | 15.47 | 0.04 | 18.05 | (9.22) | 99.29 | |
| KURA | Kura Oncology | (0.37) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 6.59 | (5.06) | 22.27 | |
| ABUS | Arbutus Biopharma Corp | (0.41) | 11 per month | 0.00 | (0.06) | 5.10 | (4.71) | 20.16 | |
| PROK | ProKidney Corp | (0.40) | 6 per month | 0.00 | (0.13) | 5.77 | (8.95) | 22.38 | |
| LENZ | LENZ Therapeutics | (0.38) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.12) | 8.05 | (7.57) | 40.02 | |
| EYPT | Eyepoint Pharmaceuticals | (0.41) | 23 per month | 3.38 | 0.08 | 7.21 | (4.89) | 20.13 |
Other Forecasting Options for Nanobiotix
For every potential investor in Nanobiotix, whether a beginner or expert, Nanobiotix's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Nanobiotix Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Nanobiotix. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Nanobiotix's price trends.Nanobiotix Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Nanobiotix stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Nanobiotix could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Nanobiotix by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Nanobiotix Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Nanobiotix stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Nanobiotix shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Nanobiotix stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Nanobiotix entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
Nanobiotix Risk Indicators
The analysis of Nanobiotix's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Nanobiotix's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting nanobiotix stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 4.13 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 5.94 | |||
| Variance | 35.27 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Nanobiotix
The number of cover stories for Nanobiotix depends on current market conditions and Nanobiotix's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Nanobiotix is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Nanobiotix's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Nanobiotix Short Properties
Nanobiotix's future price predictability will typically decrease when Nanobiotix's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Nanobiotix often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Nanobiotix's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Nanobiotix's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 47.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 49.7 M |
Additional Tools for Nanobiotix Stock Analysis
When running Nanobiotix's price analysis, check to measure Nanobiotix's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Nanobiotix is operating at the current time. Most of Nanobiotix's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Nanobiotix's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Nanobiotix's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Nanobiotix to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.